Category Archives: Western Canada

BC Legislature-Victoria

BC Budget hides $100 Billion, forces citizens to shoulder debt burden

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BC Legislature-Victoria

As the Liberal Government compiles the 2014 BC Budget, it is ignoring warnings of exploding capital borrowing, hiding $100 Billion in taxpayer liabilities, and forcing the province’s least fortunate citizens to shoulder the burden of the province’s appalling fiscal mismanagement – argues independent economist Erik Andersen.

It goes without saying that when governments set about budgeting, they should do so in the “Public’s Interest”.  So what are the best ways to do this task?  Usually, the conflicting individual objectives are so diverse it takes a general election to arrive at a consensus – much as just occurred in Nova Scotia. The trouble with waiting for a general election is that a great deal of fiscal and economic harm can be done in the interim.

Like many others, the Government of BC has been in denial of post-2009 realities. Even after 20 years of stagflation, Japan has yet to accept the reality of the rollback in corporate shares and property values by more than 70%.

[quote]The true increase in BC’s total liabilities is from $64 billion in 2005 to $170 billion in 2013. In per capita terms, that is a staggering increase in Provincial liabilities of 150% in one decade.[/quote]

BC ignores rating agency’s warnings on capital borrowing and spending

Two years ago the credit rating agency, S&P, publicly advised Canada’s provincial governments to try to control budgets for education and health care, to curtail building large capital projects if debt must be found first and to work on increasing revenues.

Our BC government has been aggressive in limiting the budgets for the first two items; irresponsibly reckless about borrowing and spending on infrastructure projects, and much too timid about increasing revenues in ways that are not regressive taxation strategies.

An examination of historical financial data is one way to get a sense of what might be in store from the 2014 BC budget unless a fundamental change of character emerges.

Revenues not keeping pace with GDP growth

Starting in 2004, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for BC was reported to have been $145.763 billion and Total Revenues $29.060 billion. By 2013 these values were $224.823 billion and $42.055 billion, respectively. In that decade, GDP increased by 54% but Total Revenues only by 45%.  This shortfall in revenue growth easily explains why the government has had continuing operating deficits ever since 2008 and – if fictional revenue transfers identified by the Auditor General continue – operating deficits will be the order of the day into the foreseeable future.

[quote]BC has a government that prefers for the least financially able carry the burden of annual revenue shortfalls.[/quote]

Parts of the economy that play a large role in determining what is the “public’s interest” – health care and education – have not fully participated in the increase in GDP.  In 2004, the per capita amount spent on health care was $2,770 and by 2013 the amount increased by only 35% to $3,750. Spending on education was even more troublesome. In 2004, the per capita amount was $2,040 but by 2013 it had only increased to $2,470 – or a 21% rise.

Electrical consumption remains flat, job growth slow

What about the rest of the BC economy? Electrical energy could be thought of as an indicator of social and business activity in the province, yet total sales to BC-only customers by BC Hydro remained stagnant at 50,000 GWhrs per year. Even the total of employed citizens came nowhere close to matching the increase in GDP, only a 15% increase over the decade.

BC’s citizens left out of GDP growth

So, why, might you ask, are BC’s citizens being left out of enjoying the benefits from this run-up in the Province’s economy?

There are two possible reasons. The first is that the Government has not been able to stop “leakage”, if indeed it even tried. The second has to do with one of the items mentioned by S&P – unaffordable borrowing and spending on infrastructure, particularly by BC Hydro.

Auditor General calls out fuzzy math in BC budgets

BC’s Government likes to “word-play” around the topic of debt and contractual obligations, a sort of Enron-Nortel approach to financial reporting. Each year the Comptroller General reports on the province’s financial condition and the Auditor General does a review. Without fail there has not been one year in the past decade that the Auditor General has issued an unqualified audit, short form of saying not right folks.

So back to debt or whatever some in Victoria like to call it. Formally, the Comptroller General reports annually the province’s “debt” and other liabilities. The political practice is to focus on the number in the “debt” column. In 2004 it was $37.735 billion and as of 2013 the “debt” was $55.816 billion. Not an altogether bad picture, right?

$100 Billion in hidden liabilities

Next, the Comptroller General shows “Liabilities”, which mostly don’t go away and are now $19.5 billion, up from $15.216 billion in 2004. What the Comptroller General does not show is a third category of liabilities known as “contingencies and contractual obligations”. The first reported year for this category was 2005 when the amount was $12.392 billion. Since then this addition to Provincial liabilities has exploded to over $100 billion (1).

All political parties running candidates in the recent election knew that the Auditor General reported the total in 2012 at $96.374 billion but none would talk about it.

Adding these three liabilities together, the increase in the provincial total is from $64.273 billion in 2005 to $170 billion in 2013. In per capita terms, that is a staggering increase in Provincial liabilities of 150% in one decade.

BC debt and contractual obligations

Citizens shoulder debt burden of BC budget

So what does the trend of the past decade suggest?

BC has a government that prefers for the least financially able carry the burden of annual revenue shortfalls.

We have a Government addicted to being big borrowers and spenders, “air-brushing” away exploding provincial liabilities. A borrow-your-way-to-financial-success model of management.

We have a government in total denial of the economic risks prevailing in the global economy of 2013 and beyond.

Not much “public’s interest” in the continuation of the government’s recent fiscal practices and little cause to think they will change.

(1) In the absence of a formal value for “contingencies and contractual obligations” the amount assumed is $100 billion for 2013.

[signoff1]

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tarsands industry-kris krüg

Judge blasts Alberta government for silencing oilsands critics

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tarsands industry-kris krüg
Oilsands infrastructure near Fort McMurray (photo: Kris Krüg)

EDMONTON – Alberta’s Environment Department has been rebuked by a judge for working behind the scenes to silence groups that question the effects of oilsands operations on the environment.

“This is a black mark for the government of Alberta,” Simon Dyer of the Pembina Institute, an environmental think-tank at the heart of the dispute, said Wednesday.

[quote]Alberta needs to walk the talk and be judged on its actions both in terms of environmental performance of the industry and its actions in terms of the regulatory process.[/quote]

In a ruling filed Tuesday, Court of Queen’s Bench Justice Richard Marceau said a provincial director who in 2012 refused the Oil Sands Environmental Coalition standing into a review of a proposed oilsands project was adhering to a 2009 internal department policy memo.

The coalition includes a number of environmental groups, including the Pembina Institute and the Fort McMurray Environmental Association.

That memo, said Marceau, made it clear that the coalition was to be thwarted because its member groups refused to work with the government through such initiatives as the Cumulative Effects Management Association.

Marceau said the director then “breached the rules of fundamental justice” by beginning from a place of bias.

See no evil, hear no evil

Nowhere in the law, wrote Marceau, “is there a suggestion that promoting Alberta’s economic growth in an environmentally responsible manner permits the director to reject statements of concern from those persons or groups who voice negative statements about proposed oil sands development.”

The 2009 memo made it clear that the Oil Sands Environmental Coalition, or OSEC, should no longer be given standing at regulatory hearings into oilsands projects on the grounds it was not directly affected by the impact of the operations.

Up until that point OSEC had been routinely granted standing.

The memo, sent to the deputy minister, the top bureaucrat in the department, singled out the Pembina Institute, noting that the institute, “as reflected in (its) recent publications about the oilsands, are less inclined to work co-operatively.”

Marceau noted that the department’s director of the northern region, who is not named, then used that exact reasoning in June 2012 to reject the coalition’s application to be allowed to speak on a proposed Southern Pacific Resource Corp. (TSX:STP) in situ oilsands mining operation on the MacKay River in northeastern Alberta.

“The reasons provided (by the director) are so close to being identical (to the memo) they seem to have been cast from the same template,” wrote Marceau.

He noted OSEC was not made aware of the 2009 memo at the time and therefore could not respond to it.

Environmental coalition must be heard

In his decision, he quashed the decision to exclude the coalition from the hearings.

OSEC has argued it is directly affected by the project, given that it has a licence to occupy land for recreational purposes downstream. It argues there are larger environmental concerns, given that the project would require up to 1.7 million litres of fresh water every day. It says air quality could also be affected and says the project would be in the middle of the habitat for a threatened caribou herd.

Environment Minister Diana McQueen was not made available for comment Wednesday. She is in Europe meeting with leaders to try to head off a European Union directive that would label oilsands oil more environmentally harmful than conventional oil.

Government denies policy against environmental groups

Department spokeswoman Jessica Potter said no decision has been made on whether to appeal Marceau’s ruling. But she said there will be a review of the decisions on who gets to speak on the Southern Pacific proposal.

“As a result of the ruling we are preparing a new assessment for this project,” said Potter.

She declined to discuss the 2009 memo or whether McQueen was aware of it, but stressed, “We don’t have a policy towards the OSEC. There’s no specific policy against a specific group.”

 “Banana Republic stuff”

NDP critic Rachel Notley said McQueen needs to cut short the European trip and return immediately to address the issue.

“This government has a law on one hand that they publish, and secret policies on the other hand that they implement behind closed doors,” said Notley.

“If that’s not bad enough, it turns out the secret policies that they’re implementing behind closed doors are designed to punish and to silence those who might disagree with their policies on the oilsands.

“This is banana republic stuff.”

Notley said if McQueen knew about the memo and didn’t act to stop it, “we need to talk about whether she should be in that position any longer.”

Notley also said Jim Ellis, the deputy environment minister at the time of the 2009 memo and now the CEO of Alberta’s new energy regulator, should resign.

Wildrose Party chimes in

Wildrose environmental critic Joe Anglin said the memo is further proof of a Progressive Conservative government that in its zeal to clamp down on dissent makes it even harder to prove to the world it is serious about reducing pollution in the oilsands.

“The worst thing we have ever done to our oilsands is we’ve gone out and created this story about how wonderful we are, but then we don’t practise it,” said Anglin.

“It does the industry a disservice and it does the public a disservice.”

[signoff1]

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It's official: Dix stepping down as BC NDP leader next year

Rafe: Farnworth favorite to replace Adrian Dix as LNG hurts Horgan

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It's official: Dix stepping down as BC NDP leader next year
The BC NDP’s outgoing leader, Adrian Dix (photo: BCGEU)

Today’s decision by Adrian Dix to step down as BC NDP leader, pending a leadership election next year, comes as no surprise. The good news for Mr. Dix – to be a bit catty for the moment – is that he stays as Leader of the Opposition, with the salary that goes with it, until some time in 2014.

That he had to resign based on history doesn’t stand up – Gordon Campbell blew the 1996 election, stayed on and became the worst premier in our history. Right wing parties, until Mr. Vander Zalm, have always circled the wagons and – to mix a couple of metaphors – refrained from eating their own whelp.

For the NDP, however, self-immolation is traditional.

This announcement gives the NDP time to focus on its leadership to come, and the party has never been very good at that. The reason is simple: the NDP is a party of principles – which is not to say that any of those principles make any sense  – whereas right wing parties concentrate on winning and let other principles be damned.

The business community doesn’t give a fiddler’s fart what the leader stands for as long as he is being friendly to business at all costs. You will remember how, right after Campbell became premier in 2011, he gave a billion dollars in tax “relief” to the well off.

Replacing Adrian Dix

The candidates for succession to the slightly-less-than-enviable prize that the NDP nest of adders is, are several  – and we may not even know the names of some of them by the time the contest gets seriously out of the starting gate.

The two favourites at this stage are Mike Farnworth and John Horgan. I mention that Mr. Farnworth is gay only because that will be – and perhaps should be – a plus in a party that prides itself on its openness to minorities. Whether or not this bears any electoral problems, I can’t say – it shouldn’t. In addition, Mr. Farnworth has had experience in cabinet, including the senior post as Health Minister. He is also – and this is important  – liked and respected both in and out of his party.

John Horgan is certainly intelligent but has a temper. A tempered temper, so to speak, may be just what the party needs. He carries with him, however, a conviction that might be hard for the NDP to support in the days to come . He supports, evidently without serious reservations, the Liberals’ vision for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants – plus the pipelines and fracking that go with them. Since this is the only hope the Liberals have for 2017, that makes things awkward for an NDP leader who agrees with them.

It’s also a problem for the third name always mentioned – George Heyman, former labour leader and former executive director of the environmental organization, the Sierra Club in BC. Heyman’s first problem is he’s not popular with the union movement who believe he laid down when Campbell legislated his members back to work.

His second problem is that he’s an untested rookie and, since the leadership contest will likely be before the Legislature goes back in session, will still be unbloodied before the leadership convention.

There will be others. Somehow dust gets sprinkled into the eyes of no-hopers who always visualize a deadlocked convention with them, somehow, coming up the middle to win – something that rarely happens. The last one I can recall – and this was before conventions were stacked with 24-hour members – was Joe Clark in 1976.

Horgan’s LNG problems

I believe that the odds on favourite will be Farnworth. He’s popular with the caucus and the party and that’s pretty important, to put it mildly. But more importantly, he will be able to corner Horgan on the LNG issues – especially over fracking. Horgan, poor chap, is trapped in the policy of the 2013 election when the NDP – if they stood for anything – were for LNG development with a minimum of study.

Now that the Liberals have staked their government’s future on LNG and mythical “Prosperity” funds, being in favour of this will not be a winner at the convention. Horgan will, no doubt, be babbling, “LNG if necessary but not necessarily LNG” – and he’ll have the experienced and popular Farnworth snapping at him from one side and the kid on “the make”, Heyman, on the other. Heyman, that is, with the strong track record opposing fracking.

This, to my mind, makes Farnworth the winner and also guarantees the usual outcome – the NDP squabbling and divided at the end of the process.

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BC Legislature-Victoria

BC Liberals hold worst Legislature attendance record

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BC Legislature-Victoria

The BC Liberals have the worst attendance record in the BC Legislature since 1976 – especially with this week’s decision to avoid a Fall sitting…again. If they were employees working in the real world, they’d have a tough time holding down a job. In politics, apparently, it’s a different story.

Socreds: 80, Liberals: 51

The Clark Government’s two predecessors differed little in their legislative schedules. From 1976 to 1991, the Socred Government held an average of 80 sessions a year; the NDP, from 1992 to 2000, hosted an average of 78.

The Liberals began their legislative tenure by choosing not to hold a Fall sitting in 2001, setting the tone for years to come. Since 2001, including this year’s abysmal 20 days in the Legislature, they have averaged just 51 days in those hallowed Victoria halls – a 53-56% decrease from their predecessors, according to data crunched by Will Koop of the BC Tapwater Alliance . (see graph below)

His organization is furious that at a such a pivotal moment, with critical issues reshaping the province’s future – from fracking and liquefied natural gas plans to oil pipelines, the $8 Billion proposed Site C Dam, mounting deficit challenges and the mess at BC Hydro –  the government would choose to sit this session out.

Premier Christy Clark says it’s precisely for that reason she can’t be bothered with pesky debate – stating that “building an LNG industry in British Columbia” is her party’s main priority.

For Koop, that excuse doesn’t wash:

[quote]Amongst other pressing issues, this government clearly does not want the public’s elected officials to go on record to debate the serious future environmental consequences, social and economic issues related to the upstream and downstream fracking industry.[/quote]

Liberals have worst legislative attendance record in BC history

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How Alberta oil companies bought the BC election - and the media missed it

Media asleep as Alberta oil companies bought BC election

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How Alberta oil companies bought the BC election - and the media missed it
Premier Christy Clark tours BC’s natural gas industry during 2013 election campaign (photo: Justin Tang/CP)

I started the week pissed off – make that Tuesday morning when I saw an article in the Province from a guy named Marsden who writes in the Calgary Herald and tells us in British Columbia that we ought to be grateful for the opportunity of transporting Alberta’s Tar Sands – that atmosphere-ravisher and source of catastrophic leaks – to market. I don’t begrudge him his opinion – what I’m sick to death of is the Postmedia press.

Where the hell are the sharp-eyed journalists of old that would have eaten this guy alive? Our local guys are almost all let go. We have no political cartoonist unless you count Harrop in the Sun, who’s incapable of drawing faces, and we have two editorial pages that serially kiss the ass of business. On the question of cartoonists, where is Krieger, who is brilliant? The last time I asked that question the Province sued me – yet, I ask again, where is Krieger?

I ask the editors of the two excuses for newspapers this simple question: would you please scour the morgue and find me one line of criticism editorially or by your two political columnists of fish farms, “run of river projects” and the slow-but-steady bankrupting of BC Hydro, of pipelines and tanker traffic? Just a line.

I recognize that Palmer and Smyth have families to feed and kids to educate and were I in their shoes I probably would write what my editor wanted and I would ignore topics that were, wink, wink, off limits. But, gawdamitey, Palmer almost singlehandedly brought NDP premier Glen Clark down and did so by holding his feet to the fire. Nothing sensational, just good old journalistic skepticism.

What happened? Ten years on the NDP’s case but, since 2001, 12 years of canoodling with the Liberals!

The week got worse when Damien sent me some stuff about out of province corporate donations from oil barons to both the BC Liberal Party and the NDP.

And where did he get this information? From the Vancouver Sun? Nay.

From the Province, then?

Nay again, it was from 24 Hours the throwaway free paper which, along with Metro and the occasional bit in the BC section of the Toronto Globe and Mail (it is very occasional), are the “journals of record” for this news-starved province.

One man, Allan Paul Marking, an Alberta Oil dude, gave $150,000 to the Liberals. Alberta oil companies Encana and Cenovus gave them $68,000 and Texas based Spectra Energy gave $33,000. Many made donations to the NDP too, just in case.

No one can be surprised at these gifts – after all it’s all neat and legal. What I do criticize is the lack of mainstream media attention.

This isn’t brain surgery here. The man who pays the piper calls the tune. If you think that this money doesn’t make Premier Clark think nice things about them when she’s making her pipeline decisions, you must believe in the Great Pumpkin.

What is extraordinary about all this is that for the public to get the truth they must read online journals like this one and thetyee.ca, which, along with many others, do a first class job. They may not get the readership of the Postmedia papers – yet – but that’s because the old papers do stuff on cars, stock markets, real estate, etc, that are beyond the ken of these websites.

It’s bad enough that we have such crappy papers that rely on “foreign” columnists, but the killer is that the great issues of the world pass unnoticed and uncriticized. The press has unusual protection, constitutionally giving them wide freedoms to keep the “establishment” reasonably covered, yet they consistently flout these rights and have become house organs for big business, government and the “establishment” in general.

It is truly to weep.

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Corky Evans on what's wrong with the BC NDP

Corky Evans on what’s wrong with the BC NDP

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Corky Evans on what's wrong with the BC NDP
Corky Evans in 2008, prior to leaving politics

The following is a private letter, republished with permission, from retired BC NDP cabinet minister Corky Evans to a friend, discussing their party’s recent election failure and uncertain future. Though not intended as a polished manifesto, it should be required reading for anyone interested in rebuilding the NDP.

August 10, 2013

Dear Steve,

Thank you for initiating the dialog about the state of our Party. 100 members with your commitment to change could save us.

We lost an election we could have won. This is not a particularly new phenomenon. The only difference between this one and many in the past was that the pundits and the press told us we would win.

Otherwise, it was pretty much as we remember. We thought we could win. We didn’t.

Of course Adrian must go. His image has been damaged by attack ads the same way Mr. Dion and Mr. Ignatieff were damaged by similar smear campaigns in the recent past. They were both fine people and they both had to leave so that their Party could move on, so must Adrian.

It would constitute huge failure however, if we, the membership, celebrated the departure of our Leader and believed our troubles were resolved.

The first Leader I ever ran for was Bob Skelly. Bob did a terrible job of campaigning. And, I don’t know, but I would wager, that in spite of his troubles he got more of the popular vote than we have received lately.

Indeed, we continue to decline regardless of who we chose as Leader. Getting rid of the Leader is sometimes necessary but it solves nothing except allowing folks to feel that they can begin again.

The only way I can think of to describe our problem is to say the Movement that we were has become the Institution that we are.

The same thing happens to every religion as it turns into a church, every political movement that outlives it’s vision, every business that grows big enough to forget what it started out to accomplish.

The Pope dies, the CEO gets paid to leave, the Leader resigns, and the institutions that they led, precisely because they are institutions, survive and carry on as before.

It seems to me that a movement becomes an institution pretty soon after it spawns a number of people whose well being, financially or psychologically, is dependent on the survival of the organization, rather than its success.

And survive we do.

We survive even if our Leadership candidates sign up bogus membership to get nominated.

We survive even if we cannot attract enough voters to grow or win.

We survive when we have nothing to say to citizens who are not already committed to our way of thinking.

We survive even when we have to get someone else to pay our President.

The people who increasingly dominate positions of leadership electorally or in the Party do not need to win elections for them to remain secure. So secure, in fact, that there are those among us who have never held a job that wasn’t, essentially, political.

Please do not misunderstand my intent. I do not wish to denigrate the folks who dedicate their lives to make us function. They Are Us.

Our problem is not ”who” they are, it is that they exist in critical mass and their voice is perceived to be our voice and their voice is not interesting. It is an institutional voice. It is pretty much like listening to the Ford Motor Company or the BC Medical Association.

I remember when one of the Leaders I worked for asked some guys many of us know to purge our Party of the troublemakers (that was not the word he used.)

They did a good job. We got Slates so the people we didn’t like couldn’t serve in Executive positions. We got Mike Muffins (members with nothing to say who stand in the line at the microphone) at Convention so they couldn’t speak. Candidates got a Message Box and were told not to say what they thought and to stick strictly to only what they were given to say.

The “troublemakers” were sidelined and we became an effective, and boring, machine. Leaders and Leaders staff tell MLA’s what they can and cannot say and punish independent thinking. Or, worse, speaking their mind. We are now a modern political machine, and we sound like one.

We are rarely, anymore, embarrassed. There is no blood on the floor at Convention. We have become a successful Institution and a failed Movement.

The contradiction in this analysis, if analysis it be, is of course that some of this organizational behavior is necessary and some of it even works.

In an age of television many believe that we cannot allow real debate at convention and we cannot have MLA’s saying what they think about stuff because everything, everywhere, is grist for the mill and can be used against us.

I remember the election when every Liberal candidate in BC, including Gordon Campbell, had a sheet of stupid things Corky Evans has said to quote from.

Of course, every quote on the page was taken out of context and was, to me, defensible. But in a time where the sound bite has replaced discourse as the way that people receive ideas, it can be argued that it is better to be boring than to risk being made to look stupid.

I do not know how to fix this. I could not write a tract entitled ”What is to be done,” because I do not know. The thing I do know, though, is that discussion is medicine for screwed up situations. Self-criticism can heal.

The message box, on the other hand, is not discourse. It is poison, like drinking the cool-aid at Jonestown.

I’d like to see us cut everyone a little slack and see if we couldn’t be a bit of a movement again, a bit embarrassing at times but also interesting and current and vibrant and less controlled, less careful, less run by anybody in particular.

This isn’t about Adrian, who I am pretty sure knows what he has to do. It is about us as a Party with a diverse base of support. I doubt very much if we know the details of what it is that we have to do, but I believe we know the spirit of the changes needed. So we best talk.

Thanks,

Corky

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Clark & Redford: What their cozy relationship means for BC pipelines

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Clark & Redford: What their cozy relationship means for BC pipelines
BC and Alberta Premiers Christy Clark and Alison Redford (CP photo)

I have some questions for Premier Clark.

Premier, I’m a simple man who by nature asks simple questions.

You and Alberta premier Redford have evidently agreed that there will be a pipeline from her province through ours to the sea and that BC will make some money out of this deal.

  • Is this the end for Enbridge Northern gateway?
  • What will the new pipeline do to satisfy those of us with serious environmental concerns about Enbridge?
  • Does this musing by you and Redford have any bearing on Kinder Morgan who, incidentally, have had several recent spills?

Let’s move on to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). You have promised, premier, that over the next several decades LNG will have wiped out all provincial debt and put over $100 billion in a prosperity fund. To make this happen we have to know some things:

  • Who will our customers be?
  • Given the huge reserves of shale gas and oil, worldwide, being discovered every day, isn’t it reasonable to assume that by the time we enter the market at the end of the decade, potential customers will be producing their own gas in quantities beyond their needs?
  • What will the price payable to BC be in 2020? And what will the market price be in the places we want to export to? Surely you can answer those questions, for otherwise your statements are egregiously irresponsible.

Let’s look at our own supply of shale gas:

  •  You have announced that Site “C”, a $10 billion dollar project, is to help the natural gas industry. Does this mean industry gets this new power free or for a significant discount compared to residential and small business customers? Does it mean that any shale gas producer who finds his returns don’t meet costs will get more favourable rates from BC Hydro?
  • If we find, alas, that the Site “C” power is not “bought” by natural gas companies, what happens to that power? In, short, what is your confidence that “Site “C” power will be needed?

A couple of questions about “fracking”:

  • Premier, in days of yore, you and then-Premier Campbell were hugely concerned about the burning of natural gas because it was toxic. Indeed, you and he heavily criticized BC Hydro for using gas to operate Burrard Thermal for a few days a year when hydro power is short. How can you condemn Burrard Thermal and support LNG production?
  • Premier, you have to get that LNG to the coast, I assume by pipeline. Will this pipeline take Tar Sands bitumen as well? Could it be easily converted for that process? Do you intend to hold public hearings, not just on environmental grounds but on the question of whether or not British Columbians want this program in the first place?
  • What are you going to do in a few years time when you discover that this LNG project is just a pipe dream?

Premier, forgive me but I might be a bit rude.

I suggest that your natural gas fracking/transporting policy is just wistful thinking. In reality, you are a Mr. Macawber, hoping that “something will turn up”.

I say your dream will turn out to be a nightmare.

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Kool, Topp & Guy: Did lobbyists, back room operators kill BC NDP campaign from within?

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This Weekend is the party’s most pivotal Provincial Council meeting ever. Will the NDP really change or will it be more of the same?

Fourteen years ago, I had the privilege to serve in the office of the Minister of Forests with an astute NDP “guru”, a modest but brilliant political thinker and one of the strongest “staffers” in the NDP Government of the day.

His name was Dan Barrett, son of former premier Dave Barrett, whose legacy still resonates to this day.  We were ministerial assistants to David Zirnhelt, now the VP of the BCNDP executive, and I held the distinction of his longest serving MA, a bit of an inside joke.

As Ministerial Assistants in a government under siege, the staffers of the late nineties had an unparalleled camaraderie, and there was a great deal of talent in the backrooms of the NDP then.

In addition to Barrett, I had the privilege to rub shoulders with folks like Adrian Dix, John Horgan and Maurine Kariaginis, all of whom found their way to the front bench of the team. As Ministerial Assistant, I served three different ministers and a Premier, so I also spent significant time with “legends” like Moe Sihota, now the paid NDP party President.

However, that is enough about me – I relay these old details simply to set some context for this commentary as it is the NDPers who never put their name on a ballot that I would like to focus on here, on the eve of the most pivotal Provincial Council meeting in the BC NDP’s history.

Back in my university days, I was a Canadian Federation of Students (CFS) representative, a position that came with the office I was elected to on student council, where I cut my teeth in the wacky world of BC politics.

In those days, the CFS in BC was chaired by a young man everyone agreed was an up and comer. So, seven years later when I landed in Victoria as a newbie staffer I was not surprised to see Brad Lavigne as a senior political staffer, then in the office of Andrew Petter, ushering in massive policy suites like the Forest Practices Code.

Lavigne has had an exemplary career, having done a full tour of duty in Canadian universities before serving BC NDP cabinet ministers and ultimately wrapping up his time in BC on the Ujjal Dosanjh bus, which saw the BC NDP crumble under the worst defeat in the history of the social democrats.

But like Ujjal, Lavigne parachuted into Ottawa and anyone who watched the made-for-TV Movie Jack knows that it was Brad who went on to motivate Layton’s leadership bid and was an instrumental figure throughout Jack’s leadership.

Layton’s team became iconic on the Hill, which catapulted them to the stratosphere of New Democrat “guruism” – and Lavigne stands out among them. A regular power panel member on our state media’s flagship political show “Power and Politics,” Lavigne has never stopped his high-energy push through the halls of power.

He and Layton recruited other players in the NDP, such as Brian Topp and Anne McGrath, who have since become “gurus” in their own right, after propelling Jack to rock star status, or so the narrative goes and the movie portrays.

Lavigne now haunts the halls of Hill and Knowlton, a key division of WPP, the worlds largest most powerful lobby. There, he works alongside other staffers whom I shared time with in the dying days of the BC NDP’s reign, including Jim Rutkowski – whom Hill and Knowlton picked upafter a stint Jim did with the Vancouver Port Authority.

Those of us who worked in the nineties NDP, recognized the heavy hitters of the day, including Lavigne, Rutkowski, Horgan and Dix were going places, and while some chose to take up political careers away from the back rooms,  the ones who took a different path may be less known in BC – yet their impact on provincial and national politics has been just as profound, if not more so.

Those now in the employ of Hill and Knowlton are clearly enjoying time at the commanding heights in this country. Yet, back in the day Dan Barrett and I shared an office in the pointy buildings, I am not sure there were any lifetime New Democrats in such positions of power.

H&K, for anyone unaware, has long been the go-to group for corporate titans and masters of the universe. They delivered such melodramas as the Kuwait liberation effort that saw a Kuwaiti diplomat’s daughter roll out the eye-watering story of incubator babies being turfed to the floor that was the last straw responsible for invoking “Operation Freedom”, which liberated the Kuwaitis from the brutality of the madman, Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein…or so the H&K narrative goes. In the end, it turns out it might of had something to do with the oil.

Which brings me to the most recent BC Election experience.

Mere weeks before the writ was dropped, Brian Topp rolled out the press release that he would indeed be the BC NDP Campaign Manager. The mainstream narrative tells us that Topp hand-picked his “team”, unsurprisingly being the same Layton triumvirate of himself, Lavigne and McGrath. Rutkowski too – so H&K were well placed in the BC NDP War Room of Topp’s choosing.

Days later, Topp rolled out the grand opening of his new shop, Kool Topp & Guy. This reverberated through the circle of politicos who pay attention to this kind of thing. Many congratulations were on offer among their high-level colleagues; however, there was among some of us lowly peripherals a gut-wrenching consternation. What we saw was the crumbling of the inevitable BC NDP win, beginning before our eyes that day.

Topp’s new business partner, Ken Boesenkool is one of Conservative Canada’s top operatives. He is a young, telegenic man with direct ties to the PMO, Manning Institute and other conservative mainstays, including a long association with disgraced former Harper Chief strategist, Tom Flanagan, with whom he co-authored the Alberta Firewall, among many other less than flattering undertakings which delivered power to the Harper Conservatives. And finally the West was “in”.

Boesenkool also did a stint with – you guessed it – Hill and Knowlton, where he had a long list of clients, whom I cannot reveal because he does not discuss them – but it has been well publicized that he did time fighting the good fight for Enbridge.

The shiny new Kool Topp & Guy shingle, hung out days after Topp announced his role as BC NDP Campaign Manager, was a shocker, no doubt. Many were aware that Kool left Christy Clark’s side mere months prior under the cloud of a short lived and rather strange “scandal” that had no paper trail and few details.

Many observers were blindsided by the development of the BC NDP campaign manager teaming up with the architect of the Christy Clark BC liberal revival, mere days before the writ.

There were rumblings – quickly dashed – that included a call for Topp to step down. Concerns raised by bloggers and party supporters fell on deaf ears, as the rank and file were poll-drunk and the Topp-down orchestrated NDP campaign had an iron grip on the Kool-aid jug being liberally poured for everyone,  from the leader on down.

Which brings us to today. This weekend the NDP has its quarterly Provincial Council. The first item of business is the report from the Campaign manager. Bill Tielman,  identified as an NDP strategist, quipped that there “could be recriminations” in a recent Justine Hunter Globe and Mailpiece, suggesting that the heat Topp has taken since the “surprising upset” could be met with significant push-back from Topp`s strategists that occupied the war room.

A full disclosure of who exactly occupied the war room and handled the leader has yet to occur, but at this point, Topp, Lavigne, Mc Grath, Rutkowski, along with high-level elected executive types, Sihota, O’Brien and Zirnhelt have all been identified as key figures in the construction and execution of the campaign in its entirety. However, fundraising seems to have been executed outside of the direct leadership of the war room.

Topp did say weeks ago during some of the debate which ensued while sifting through  the ruins of the BC NDP 2013 election experience, that he intended to “write about the campaign after the leader spoke.” That did not happen and his twitter account has fallen silent since the day the BC Liberal campaign accused him of a conflict of interest – based on his associations with the film industry lobby and the policy being forwarded by the BC NDP Campaign. Not a single tweet from the twit since – the silence has been deafening.

Regardless, the entrails have been pored over in an informal fashion as Dix was quoted saying that an informal NDP review of the party’s election failures is already underway. “There’s lots of reflection taking place right now and I think that’s useful,” Dix claimed recently. Throughout this reflection period we have seen a wide variety of observations, ranging from blaming the apathetic, the Greens, the BC liberal voters and even questioning the polling that clamped down the internal campaign and candidates. But in the end, the one thing everyone agrees on is that the campaign was indeed the reason why BC is still governed by the single most regressive government in history.

Why that is the reality will be further explored as the “Terms of reference” will be set out for a formal review this weekend at Provincial Council. The run-up to this weekend’s gathering of the faithful from fall corners of the Province has already received some harsh yet insightful commentary and the leader is going to be in the hash marks.

The NDP risks squandering a potentially useful exercise if all they do is put Dix in the hash marks, as the 2013 election clearly cannot solely be attributed to him, and doing so may avoid digging deeper to the core of the problem and the generals in the war room whose conflicted interests are at the very heart of the defeat.

The last Provincial Council meeting I attended, my old colleague, Dan Barrett’s father stood up to the mic, delivered one sentence and sat down: “The NDP should change its name, because its no longer new or democratic.”

I am sure Dave Barrett`s observation never rang more true and was never more relevant than it will be at this weekend’s Provincial Council, over ten years later.

Part two of this two-part piece, will be published after we hear from Kool Topp Guy this weekend – and will include the H&K war room damage control report, language and efforts.

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Rafe: What the Heck are John Horgan and the NDP Thinking?!

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Ok, John Horgan (BC NDP Energy critic), now I’m pissed off. You were quoted in the Vancouver Sun this week as saying you’re unhappy that the NDP lost, etc, weep, sob.

Here it is in plain, unadorned English: I TOLD YOU SO! In fact, my advice to you and your party has been constant and goes back to Bob Skelly’s day. The fact is that politics is a blood sport – not just in BC but everywhere and in politics as in baseball. Lou Durocher was right – “nice guys finish last”.

Who the hell made the decision to ignore the Liberals’ appalling record? Defeated candidate Harry Lali, when I spoke to him weeks before the election, agreed with me that the election policy of the NDP was calculated to lose.

Who ran this show? Moe Sihota? Was perpetual loser Gerry Scott back? Or was it former Liberal Government chief of staff/Enbidge lobbyist/bottom pincher Ken Boessenkool?

Yes, I’m going to be a bit self-centred today, but I’m entitled. Who established the nice guy, new petty policy-a-day technique? I called it, with indelicacy but truth, a fart a day. Meanwhile, your opponent stuck to one simple, effective narrative.

Now, Mr. Horgan, to the meat of the matter. Those British Columbians uncommitted to either party were, like me and the Common Sense Canadian, not pulling for you because we love the NDP. For the most part, we didn’t give a rat’s ass for any of the parties. We wanted to save our province from the ravages of large industry, bound and determined to ignore out environment.

Where were you – yes, John, you especially? Where were you on fish farms? Where were you on pipelines? Oil tankers? What of private power?

Let’s deal with the latter for a moment. You know what has happened and continues to happen to our rivers as Independent Power Producers (IPPs) dam them, dry them up as fish try to spawn, then sell their electricity to BC Hydro at double or more the market price. You knew better than most that BC Hydro is technically bankrupt, only alive because it can raise our rates.

Ponder that Mr. Horgan – the jewel in BC’s tiara tossed away, and you and your party virtually leave the issue alone!

Coming out against Kinder Morgan didn’t kill you – it was the timing and manner of Mr. Dix’s announcement that did the damage.

Your position on “fracking” and creation therefrom of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was bewildering to say the least. The environmental movement around the world and most scientists in this field are urging, “Go slow! Let’s get answers to some very serious concerns before we hurl ourselves into this free-for-all”.

On the economic side of LNG, where is the market going to be? China, which has enough natural gas to last 500 years? The US that’s awash with the stuff? What about our competition – Australia, Poland, Russia, which has the biggest gas reserves in the world?

According to the Premier, the $8 BILLION+ going into Site “C” would be used to supply the LNG industry. And you support that?

In fact, what you and the opposition did, by inference at least, is support Premier Clark’s absurd notion that by 2017 LNG will have us debt free, with $100 Billion or so in a “Prosperity Fund”.

The real point is the NDP spat out issues as if they were of equal importance. As I say, sir, a fart a day.

What you did was let down British Columbians who couldn’t care less about political parties but looked to you to save us from the corporate bulldozer.

In fact, the NDP abandoned the position that oppositions traditionally occupy in a democracy. “The duty”, said Lord Randolph Churchill, “of the opposition is to oppose”. This is the only way full knowledge of issues can be attained. Part of that job is to be a government in waiting – in fact you weren’t even an opposition in waiting.

If it weren’t for this terrible “first past the post” system we have, the alternative government would be the Green Party. They alone of the opposition parties hit the issues.

You owe the people of British Columbia, of all political stripes, a huge apology for a gutless election where the government got a free ride.

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What Happened in British Columbia?

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Adrian Dix expresses disappointment at losing the 2013 B.C. election (Darryl Dyck / The Canadian Press).
Adrian Dix expresses disappointment at losing the 2013 B.C. election (Darryl Dyck / The Canadian Press).

The election has been over now for three weeks, and the media has been full of articles dissecting what happened in an attempt to explain what to many came as a shocking surprise.

It is easy to see what happened, if not why, but generally left unsaid is what probably will not happen with the Liberals getting another four years in government.

A friend of mine made note of that right after the results were in, and I think that it puts the whole event in a more accurate perspective than merely discussing how the election was either won or lost, depending on one’s point of view.

As my friend Marco wrote, for the next four years, there will be:

NO public inquiry into the BC Rail and BC Hydro scandals

NO comprehensive public Environmental-Economic Impact Assessment for major resource development projects (pipelines, mines, fracking, etc.)

NO restoration and repair to our damaged public health, emergency and education systems

NO restoration of curtailed Human Rights, Labour Code and Employment Standards, and Freedom of Information laws

NO serious effort to develop a more sustainable, democratic, local community-based economy and job creation (including co-ops, getting away more from oil dependency, etc.)

NO restoration of a fairer dynamic tax code based on the ability to pay, not on who you know or how well you can blackmail.

NO relief from skyrocketing personal debt, lack of retirement security, lack of access to skills training, declining air and water quality, ever worsening poverty and homelessness and chronic high unemployment

NO electoral or election finance reform or efforts to make government bureaucracy and crown agencies more accountable to the public, including the productive union workers who give them reason to exist.

So, how did this happen?  Polling before the election indicated that the public was fed up with the government, and that they would be defeated soundly.  It did not happen, and the reason that most did not see it coming as it did could be because the polls were asking the wrong questions and the election planners were running with misleading data.

There is no guarantee, however, that even if the right questions were asked and the data was different the opposition would have been able to unseat the government.  It may be that the organization as presently constituted cannot win elections because they are adverse to running the kind of campaign necessary to achieve victory.

The polls are probably telling us what people are thinking, but not so much how they will vote, or more precisely if they will turn their feelings into votes.  The fact is that from the middle of their first term onward the public was generally unhappy with the government.  The opposition lost three elections in a row that were theirs’ to win because they could not turn that dissatisfaction into votes.

For the last thirty years the province has seen a steady decrease in the percentage of eligible voters actually casting a ballot, with the exception of a minor increase in 2005.  The 2013 election had a turnout of just over fifty-two percent of registered voters, but not all eligible voters even bother to register.  The turnout of all eligible voters was just over forty-nine percent.

The government won re-election with just under twenty-two percent of the vote of those estimated to be eligible to vote.  The message here being that most voters, though unhappy with the government, also do not trust the opposition nor the system, and don’t bother to participate.

The root of current dissatisfaction might lay in the results of the 2001 election where after five years of concentrated negative attacks on the NDP government the current government won a landslide victory.  Unfortunately for them their campaign was more hype than reality, and instead of governing with the interests of the province in mind they proceeded to rip up social contracts and sell off public assets. They dropped in the polls.

The reason the opposition has been unable to capitalize on this situation may have roots in their 2000 leadership contest where the populist wing of the party was crushed in this rather unsavory event by party power brokers.  They lost the 2001 election which was no surprise, but losing it by the margin that they did was.

They continued in control of the party, managing to lose two elections with Carole James, and lost more credibility with the ham-handed way that they managed the uprising against Carole dating from at least the 2009 convention.  Now they have lost an election that was more than theirs’ to win, primarily because a majority of the people who do vote do not trust them, and much of the majority who do not vote, won’t because they do not have a good incentive to go to the polls.

What will happen in 2017, or possibly before, will depend upon whether the government can clean up its act and regain popular support (in the thirty polls taken by Angus Reid between August 2009 and May 2013 the government only led or was tied in three of them), and whether the opposition can clean house and energize the public to see them as a credible alternative.

Jerry West publishes The Record in Gold River, BC.

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