Why Donald Trump will probably beat Hillary Clinton

Why Donald Trump will likely beat Hillary Clinton
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (Gage Skidmore / Flickr CC Licence)

Of course Donald Trump could beat Hillary in November. I think he will, but before going further, let me say that this would be any enormous worldwide tragedy and we must pray that there is a God and He will save us.

Back to the election.

Trump is in a lot better shape than the pundits give him credit for and he couldn’t have done it without a hell of a lot of help from Hillary.

She has been in the race too long and it’s showing. She’s displaying her temper and a lack of judgment – not to mention her recent health issues – things that everyone has but no-no’s when you’re running for president.

But let’s get to the underlying reason Trump is doing so well.

Whole new ballgame

The media and pollsters have been caught out making outdated assumptions and asking irrelevant questions. They’re looking at this contest through the prism of elections past and are still declaring their choice of issues and missing the main one. It’s easier that way – research and thinking take up booze time.

It’s an entirely new ballgame and I refer back to articles I’ve done here and elsewhere saying that society as we have come to know it is mortally wounded and it’s impossible to predict just what it’s going to look like a decade from now.

The first major clue for me anyway, was on the environmental front. Environmentalism was always a leftwing issue and often the loony left at that.

With the arrival of global warming, it suddenly occurred to the masses that there were troubles in River City and that maybe those grubby long-hairs marching with the placards had something after all. When science, almost to a person, backed up the demonstrators of yore and the evidence grew almost daily, suddenly the middle class caught on and development no longer trumped all other considerations.

The secret, always suspected, was out of the bag and we learned that the Establishment had been lying for a very long time and that the public had naively come to uncritically accept what they were told by their “betters”. Once it became obvious with the climate issue that all these good corporate citizens, our politicians and community leaders had not been telling the truth, it was a very short step to assuming that anything they said was suspect. This manifested itself in movements like Occupy Wall Street by young people and outrage increasing through social media.

The Mainstream Media had no choice but get into the Establishment life-boat. The world over, the rich increased the gap between themselves and the poor and as that gap widened, carrying more and more power with it, the resentment of the poor became stronger and stronger.

Brexit offers clues to Trump’s success

Photo: diamond geezer / Flickr CCThe latest and best example of this was Brexit in Britain, England especially. I wrote an article on the subject that that the main issue was being obscured by the media and that the underlying cause of discontent simply wasn’t being recognized.

Now there are lots of reasons that Brexit went as it did and no doubt all made a contribution. In my view, however, there was one principal cause and one sub-cause that really did the EU in.

The same “pissed off mood” existed in Britain as elsewhere and those who were that way and voted “Leave” probably wouldn’t recognize that. “Real Reasons” are hard to determine, especially if you don’t try.

I offer as an hypothesis that the “Leave” vote was that deep down feeling of resentment of being fooled, aggravated by more recent “insults”, as many people felt that they had been cheated and subjected to a “bait and switch” by those set in authority over them.

If you look back at the process you will see that the first referendum in 1975 simply wanted to know if Britain, having finally been accepted by de Gaulle wished to stay in the common market. The operative word throughout was “market”. This was not portrayed as approval of any kind of a political union and had it been, it clearly would have failed. To Britain, an economic deal looked like a pretty good idea and they voted for it by a substantial margin.

Up-Yours-DelorsIt was under the presidency of Jacques Delors, an unelected bureaucrat, from 1986 till 1994. that the Common Market inexorably moved to a political union. Delors was detested by many in Britain.

It is a long history and I don’t wish to oversimplify it but just point out that by the time of the Brexit vote on June 23, 2016, the same massive irritation with the establishment that we saw in North America was also present in Britain and a substantial part of that irritation came from Jacques Delors and a political union they neither voted for but in fact opposed.

For many, the Brexit vote was a chance to rectify what they saw as a “bait and switch” scam by the elite that started off as a marketplace and ended up in a huge, meddlesome bureaucracy in Brussels.

Public ready for a brawl

Enter the US election with the same festering distrust of the establishment. The pundits and the pollsters, stuck in a time warp, are overlooking reality and the “garbage in, garbage out” rule comes into play.

Much of the public, both on the right and on the left, is thoroughly pissed at where their social, economic, and political masters have taken them and they aren’t much interested in debates under the Marquess of Queensbury rules, seen as the Elite’s rules, preferring a brawl if necessary.

This has given Trump a big advantage. As long as he hammers at Clinton, the dissident voters are happy and don’t much care about the truth or fairness of the attack.

In fact, the more outrageous he is, the more popular he becomes. Many wonder how Trump can get away with it and it’s because a large part of the American public is quite willing to let him get away with it if it gets the job done and turfs out what they see as the enemy.

Trump fights by own rules

In the meantime, Hillary Clinton is playing right into Trumps hands. The more she calls his supporters names the more they support him. It stands to reason that when she calls Trump bad names, they support him if only because Clinton represents all of the things they’re mad at and the more bumps on the nose of the privileged, the better.

It is not all Hillary’s fault of course. I doubt there are many politicians of consequence prepared to fight a man like Trump because he doesn’t fight by the old rules and they don’t know how to fight by the new ones.

Paradoxically, Trump could probably buy out the Clintons 100 times or maybe 1000, yet the Clintons are seen as the ones who have taken advantage of the system and enriched themselves at the expense of the least well off. That is a base canard but the reality is that this is how it appears to disaffected voters, and appearances are as good as facts in politics.

I will now assure the victory of Hillary Clinton by making a famous Mair political prediction – which will, as always, be wrong – and say that Donald Trump will succeed President Obama next January…and may God have mercy on all of us if for once I’m right.


About Rafe Mair

Rafe Mair, LL.B, LL.D (Hon) a B.C. MLA 1975 to 1981, was Minister of Environment from late 1978 through 1979. In 1981 he left politics for Talk Radio becoming recognized as one of B.C.'s pre-eminent journalists. An avid fly fisherman, he took a special interest in Atlantic salmon farms and private power projects as environmental calamities and became a powerful voice in opposition to them. Rafe is the co-founder of The Common Sense Canadian and writes a regular blog at rafeonline.com.

28 thoughts on “Why Donald Trump will probably beat Hillary Clinton

  1. Hi Rafe; Just to endorse your reasoning for the vote happening as it did, not one commentator or politicians seems to have correctly connected the dots as you have , even after Clinton’s ignominious defeat.

    A Democratic head organiser from Ohio nailed it for me. He confirmed the urban voter was there for Clinton but the rural voters were not.

    A few people have been recently using the term “tape worm” economics to describe the condition of the US economy. That is were the parasite cannot stop until the host is consumed and by so doing destroys itself.

    I think rural folks generally understand the concept that you “eat what you kill” or if not will simply die off. There is therefore a great deal of independence and community co-operation in rural communities.

    Turning this around a little, urban citizens do look very much like parasites . They produce little of value the could contribute to basic self-survival or anyone else’s survival for that matter.

    As the take by “parasites” increases, those who do actually produce the essentials for human survival simply fall away due to exhaustion.

    It is unfortunate that politicians for the last century have taken their marching orders mostly from the “parasites”. That is mostly why there is the government’s passion to build Site C at the expense of loosing productive, high-value agricultural land. When it will stop is an unknown.

  2. Think you posted this RAFE on Sept.15 and predicted the worst in the USA election. Hopefully your prediction will be changing a bit now….but I totally understand the relationship to the British BREXIT thinking of the populous….Not to mention dear old “Bernie”…. he too hit a cord eh?

  3. Trump wont win.
    For the simple fact that the “angry white voter” is in the minority for the first time in a US election.
    A few latino and black votes would probably have put him over the top but he’s done his damndest to torpedo THAT scenario.
    Clinton will win but it will be a hollow victory.

  4. Great read Rafe!

    A factor prior to Brexit that was starkly under-reported and a part of the ‘bait and switch’, was unemployment and stagnating or falling wages caused by a huge, uncontrolled influx of workers from low wage countries. This was presented in the media and politics not as a huge issue with the working class but as an issue with racists, and as such, marginalized and depreciated. A crafty move by the powers that be certainly, that is until they started to believe their own PR and Cameron decided to put the annoying unrest to referendum, and gain a mandate to proceed with more secret trade deals.

    Re Trump’s popularity: We in Canada had our ‘bait and switch’, fronted up by Brian Mulrooney. “Jobs, jobs, jobs’ was the mantra. …Oh, and duty free cross border shopping.

    Yet we’ve watched our manufacturing sector gutted to the point that we are coerced into enabling an arms manufacturing industry, (funny how that isn’t off-shored). We have fallen back on developing and marketing our resources. We no longer chafe at references of our being hewers of wood and drawers of water. E.I registers some 7% of Canadians as being on their roles. And in the face of this we bring in a vast number of Temporary Foreign Workers to enable a $5.00 hamburger…

    In the U.S., whole vast areas are falling into disrepair and abandonment. Tax bases crumble. Local governments are preying on the powerless as the police enforce laws intended to create revenue. (I’m not sure that they in the U.S. have discovered the lucrative area of ‘pretend impaired driving’ yet.) As industries move out, the areas suffer high unemployment but moreover, many that were unskilled or semi-skilled have ceased looking for work. One area recently documented on TV had 11% unemployment but had fully 50% of the adults of working age on benefits including disability. Nationally, homelessness is endemic. People in rags rooting through garbage cans and begging in the streets. ….Unbelievable that it has come to this.

    It is becoming clear that the working class is not intended to be a part of the new global economy and that they are in the process of being roughly dealt out. Any analysis of Trump’s electability, with his historically strong anti-free trade views, has to be viewed through the eyes of the victims and those that will at some point will be victims.

  5. My prediction: If Trump is elected I see a new civil war in the USA, based on colour and religion, with millions of refugees coming to Canada.

  6. hello my name is Roxas Smith I’m a Maryland resident and a U.S. citizen my only comment on this topic is that I pray to god that he spares this country from a tragedy such as that egotistic, power-hungry maniac getting elected then again I don want Hillary elected either not because she’s a women ( in my opinion Michelle Obama is more politically suited than Hillary) but because she’s been in this game too long and she has poor decision the only candidate who made sense was Bernie Sanders sadly the democratic group and its supporters like myself cannot choose him looks like I’m moving to Canada soon

  7. Hilary belongs in the Big House not White House.

    I do not want to see a President Trump either..

    Poor Americans, nothing really to choose from this election….

    1. “Hilary belongs in the Big House not White House” That is a perfect example of a false equivalency. Considering the racist and inciting violence of Trump, not to mention his many outright lies, He should be locked away. Any sane person is better than Trump.

        1. Nothing Hillary has done makes her as bad as the unhinged, narcissist Trump. That is a why suggesting one is as bad as the other is a False Equivalency.

          1. Please research Hilary and her law firm ‘Rose Law firm’ and their involvement in money laundering, drug trade, and misuse of public funds in Arkansas as far back as the 1980’s when husband Bill was governor. This is not someone you would not want in the white house.
            Youtube congressman Trey Gowdy’s investigations of her involvement in the Bengasi murder’s of an American Ambassidor and his aids.

            1. Do the same research on Trump. The choice is between a candidate who is an unhinged egomaniac vs. one whose record is imperfect. Fortunately most Americans are smarter than Trump.

              1. Hal,
                I am not a Fan of Donald Trump and am of the mind that God help America after this election no matter who wins. The Clinton’s are ruthless people. Lying is the least thing that the American public should worry about with them.
                They all lie!
                I think the American public see Trump as different from the status quo as he is not a politician. They simply don’t trust politicians any more and Hilary is a big part of that anger.
                All the best!

              2. Trump IS a politician! What is worse is he is a demagogue. The absolute worst combination and it is part of the scam he’s playing..

  8. Very insightful and meaningful article. Yes, the prism of previous elections is very old school thinking these days, but it does give good ratings to the likes of CNN, MSNBC and Fox and all the hate TV and radio channels to have pundits back-and-forth, saying the same things over and over… and over again, the hosts fanning any flame they can possibly find before they take a commercial break. Very disappointing to watch, so choose not to.

    Thank you again for your clear and concise history of the underlying factors that have led us to this weird place in time.

    1. You are so correct Robert. Then Trump says the first thing that comes into his head, however crazy, and his supports praise him for “calling a spade a spade”. Hillary does it and she is criticised by the same group. His phoney deflections on his actions with the birther movement should be proof that the man is unhinged. Hillary does not have to be a 10 when the opposition is a nutcase.

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