Tag Archives: Ray Grigg

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Shades of Green: Decisions and Information Overload

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The information that saturates our modern world should increase our ability to address the many critical environmental challenges demanding our attention. But new psychological studies suggest that all this information may be more debilitating than helpful. The plethora of facts, opinions, news items and scientific data enveloping us from a persistent and pervasive barrage of electronic, print and auditory media may be overwhelming our ability to decide and act.

Researchers analyzing the effects of such information overload are able to track its impact on our brains by using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to actually observe “the activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region behind the forehead that is responsible for decision making and control of emotions” (Newsweek, Mar. 7/11). Too much information and too many choices causes this portion of the cortex to stop functioning in a condition termed “information fatigue”. People in this condition either fail to make decisions or the ones they do make are less reasoned and sensible. Mistakes and procrastination cause frustration and anxiety to soar.

When this psychological phenomenon is applied to the complex environmental issues confronting us, we can begin to understand why decisions are so difficult to make and why corrective measures seem to proceed so slowly. Many people are simply confounded by the number and complexity of choices confronting them. Is buying a new and fuel-efficient car better than keeping an older and less efficient one? Should the car option be abandoned in favour of a bicycle or public transit? When flying has such a high carbon dioxide impact, should international travel to vacations and relatives be abandoned? Given the greenwashing that takes place in marketing, what products can be trusted as ecologically benign? When pesticides, pollution and processed foods seem ubiquitous, how do we choose healthy and safe diets? As energy demand increases, what sources do we condemn and endorse? Or should we just wait for the arrival of a saving technology? What are the practical limits of a philosophy of “refuse, reuse and recycle”.

While the information that saturates our world presents us with innumerable dilemmas, it also informs us that each individual decision we make is important because the cumulative effect steers the direction of industries and markets, ecologies and climate, even civilizations and history. Indeed, each decision we make is imbued with influence and power.

In analyzing our decision making processes when we are overwhelmed with information, psychologists have identified four distinct effects (Ibid.). First is a “failure to decide”, a consequence of the information load being “debilitating”. Marketers have discovered that too many choices of toothpaste, breakfast cereal or snack foods so immobilize consumers with options that they choose nothing. So, too, people can be so overcome by the complexity of the environmental issues before them that they are immobilized.

The second effect of information overload is “diminishing returns”. The human memory has difficulty working with more than about seven items at a time. Further information has to be stored in long-term rather than short-term memory, a process that impairs decision making. Add the continual and rapid arrival of new information to decision making and the experience can be overwhelming. “The ceaseless influx [of new information] trains us to respond instantly, sacrificing accuracy and thoughtfulness to the false god of immediacy,” writes Sharon Begley in her Newsweek article. And whenever we do make decisions, they can be invalidated by the instant arrival of more current information, a disquieting effect that further impairs decision making.

The third effect of information overload is “recency” over “quality” – because we are wired “to notice change over stasis”, we tend to give greater weight to the most recent information we receive. “We’re fooled by immediacy and quantity and think it’s quality. What starts driving decisions is the urgent rather than the important,” notes Eric Kessler in Begley’s article. Indeed, we are psychologically inclined to give equal weight to all information we receive. Impulse buying operates on this principle. In the salmon farming controversy now occupying so much attention on the West Coast, the phenomenon of recency explains why the industry always responds to every reasoned criticism or scientific study questioning the environmental wisdom of growing fish in open net-pens – the last impression, no matter how trivial or irrelevant, always carries a disproportionately high influence.

The “neglected unconscious” is a fourth consideration Begley explores. We need time to process information if we are to arrive at creative and wise decisions. This requires a retreat from the complexity and constant influx of new input so the “subconscious” can sort, process and integrate the collected information. Some must be ignored. Urgency and hurry subverts this valuable process – “Act now or miss this incredible opportunity!” is an invitation to a bad decision. The sensible ecological and economic principle of protecting a park is eroded by a tempting business proposal. The 2008 gasoline panic that rushed the decision to make fuel by converting valuable food products such as corn into ethanol is a model example of an ill-considered reflex to a complex energy problem.

The psychological dynamics of information overload helps to explain why we make foolish environmental decisions or why we may not even undertake necessary action. Explanations, however, are not substitutes for excuses. Even if our rapidly changing and complex world is saturated with information, this doesn’t excuse us from making helpful choices. Indeed, as environmental threats intensify, almost any thoughtful choice will be helpful.

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Shades of Green: Ice Ages, Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide

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The complicated relationship between ice ages and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels has just become a little clearer thanks to the work of Dr. Larry Edwards and a team of researchers from the University of Minnesota. Although such science may seem esoteric, it is vital in explaining the heating effect we are having on Earth’s climate by burning massive amounts of CO2-emitting fossil fuels. Dr. Edward’s work also helps to explain the cyclical arrival of ice ages and how our Industrial Age is impacting these cycles (New Scientist, May 22/10). With such insights, we can better anticipate the consequences of our behaviour and take corrective measures.

Suspicion began as early as 1864 that Earth’s changing tilt may have something to do with ice ages. More serious work was done in the early 20th century by Milutin Milankovitch, a Serbian engineer who spent decades examining variations in Earth’s orbital cycles and the tilt of its axis from 22 to 24 degrees and back again every 41,000 years. Milankovitch theorized that the angle and intensity of sunlight striking our planet could have an effect on the warming and cooling that seem to cause the rhythmical advance and retreat of ice ages – an ice age could be initiated by a cooler summer sun allowing a gradual accumulation of polar snow and ice. A more serious examination of Milankovitch’s work began in the late 20th century as global warming and climate became a puzzle of greater scientific interest.

But climate science is rarely tidy. The arrival and departure of ice ages didn’t always correlate to Milankovitch’s tilt model. Besides, polar ice only appeared on our planet about 30 million years ago. If his model were the sole explanation, then ice ages should have occurred regularly throughout Earth’s history.

The hidden variable was carbon dioxide. Scientists now know from studying marine sediments, ice cores, coral and stalagmites that atmospheric CO2 levels began to gradually fall about 30 million years ago, causing a cooling trend that, by about 2.5 million years ago, eventually brought the temperature level low enough for the axis cycle to have its effect. As expected, minor ice ages occurred every 41,000 years until about 1 million years ago. Then the ice ages began “missing a beat” and became major. Neither CO2 levels, tilt nor Earth’s other orbital irregularities could explain the magnitude of these more extreme ice ages. Some other dynamic was causing them. Complicating the explanation was the fact that CO2 levels were rising and falling simultaneously with the advance and retreat of the ice sheets, not ahead of them. If changing CO2 levels were coincidental, they were not causal. What was happening?

The new explanation is that ice ages are partly responsible for their own demise. As they get larger and heavier, they depress the planet’s crust, thus lowering their elevation and causing melt from higher temperatures. Additionally, the foundations of the ice sheets may sink below sea level, allowing warm ocean water to undermine and destabilize them. When Earth’s axis shifts enough to cause additional summer warming, then the ice age ends.

But what explains the increased levels of carbon dioxide that rise and fall simultaneously with the ice ages? The answer resides in the effect of the melting ice.

Melting ice releases huge amounts of fresh water, overlaying the northern oceans with a surface of reduced salinity and density. This shuts down “the Atlantic overturning circulation – the great ocean current that carries heat north, then sinks and flows back along the bottom of the ocean.” The south-and-north distribution of heat stops and the southern oceans become warmer. Since warmer water holds less dissolved gas, huge quantities of CO2 are released into the atmosphere causing additional warming, more melting and less oceanic heat distribution. This process continues until the ice is melted, an equilibrium re-establishes, and the system waits for the cycle to begin again.

The relevance for us today is that our industrial burning of fossil fuels is emitting enough carbon dioxide to alter this cycle. If conditions were normal, we would be entering one of the 41,000-year cooling cycles. But rapidly climbing CO2 levels – they have exploded in geological time from 280 to 390 parts per million in an incredibly brief 250 years – are quickly returning us to conditions that preceded the first polar ice of 30 million years ago. Our climate is “currently on course to become like that of the Miocene 10 to 15 million years ago, long before the ice age cycle began, when it was 6°C warmer and sea level was up to 40 metres higher” (Ibid.).

The solace in this news is that our fossil fuel emissions are preventing an oncoming ice age thousands of years hence. The disquieting news is that these same emissions are causing an almost instantaneous temperature rise and a destabilizing impact on the stable inter-glacial period that allowed us to develop our civilization. We will soon be confronting climate conditions that are entirely new to our human species. The rapidity of this new climate change permits no time for species and ecosystems to adapt. And, as adaptable as we like to think we are, it presses us to adjust our agriculture, relocate our settlements, modify our water use, alter our resource consumption, shift our energy sources, and prepare our huge and diverse global population for dramatic changes.

We have learned a huge amount about ice ages and climate change since serious study began less than a century ago. We still have much to learn about our effect on Earth’s climate, how we will mitigate the changes we are unleashing, and how we intend to adapt to these new circumstances.

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Shades of Green: Better Options Than Cynicism

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Historians have noted that one of the greatest threats to the survival of societies is not adversity but cynicism, the pervasively negative attitude that defeats the possibility of finding solutions to recognized challenges. Cynicism undermines the viability of societies by summarily discrediting personal initiative, communal effort, adaptive innovation, technological ingenuity and collective wisdom.

Cynicism seems to be the temper of our times. We know what our challenges are and, in most cases, we know how to move toward solutions. But we are in danger of adopting a dismissive indifference, a perverse reluctance and a defeatist resignation that fails to address these challenges with adequate resolution and vigour. When the challenges invite us to be brave and assertive – “Fortune knows we scorn her most when most she offers blows,” Shakespeare advised – our heroism is crippled by cynicism. If we don’t believe that we are capable of surmounting our difficulties then we commit ourselves to be victims of our own failings.

This failure is illustrated wonderfully in a recent Scott Adams Dilbert cartoon (Globe & Mail, Mar. 29/11). Aside from the inclination of Dilbert to be somewhat cynical anyway, this one is particularly so. Dogbert in the cartoon is typing at a computer. “I’m writing fake press releases for imaginary new green energy technologies,” he says to Dilbert. “Scientists say that by 2040 you will be able to power your entire home with the breeze from your refrigerator door.” So Dilbert asks Dogbert, “Now how will I know which green breakthroughs are real?” And Dogbert replies, “Seriously? You think there are real ones?”

Such cynicism is insidiously destructive because it fails to see hope and, therefore, fails to see options and solutions. Many of the changes we need are not technologically onerous; they can be made by simple administrative means. Reducing the intense impact of industrial ocean fishing by international agreements would save bluefin tuna from imminent extinction and end the population collapse of other large fish species. Enforcing no-whaling protocols would spare endangered cetaceans from crisis conditions. Designating Marine Protected Areas and limiting catch sizes would ensure perpetual fish stocks in fishing areas.

The terrestrial equivalent of MPAs are parks. Beyond providing environmental protection and ecological security, they stabilize climate, counteract species extinction, educate people, generate employment, and are a source of local, provincial and national pride – surveys show that Canadians identify themselves more strongly with national parks than with hockey.

The growing anxiety about food production can even be addressed by low-tech means. A UN report on Agro-Ecology and the Right to Food (March 2011) found that developing countries could produce 80 to100 percent more food by practicing ecological rather than industrial agriculture. An organic system of careful planting would reduce the debilitating costs of petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides, make soils more drought resistant, buttress food self-sufficiency and also store vast amounts of carbon. In The Climate Challenge, Guy Dauncey argues that if 1.5 billion hectares of the world’s agricultural land were farmed organically, soils would sequester enough carbon dioxide to reduce atmospheric CO2 by an astounding 11 percent.

Conserving energy is the cheapest way to energy sufficiency. If we can accept this fact and be aware of the energy consumption of our appliances, gadgets, homes, vehicles and travel habits, then we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, ocean acidification, harmful pollutants and the cost to ourselves, our society and our environment. If we take the cynical position that our individual actions are unimportant, that it’s too late to stop the slide into environmental Armageddon or that ecological problems do not exist, then inaction ensures that the possible becomes the inevitable.

Even without the revolutionary technological innovations that will hopefully solve all our energy needs and save us from the fossil fuel conundrum, we can control greenhouse gas emissions by carbon taxes that can then be directed to research and projects to reduce the effects we don’t want. A price on carbon can have the multiple benefits of providing a cost incentive to reduce emissions, of inducing a price structure that will encourage innovation while providing funds that can be directed to carbon reducing projects. Ironically, because the business community hates uncertainty and anticipates the inevitability of some form of carbon tax to control greenhouse gas emissions, it actually wants them sooner rather than later.

Consumers guide the marketplace and voters elect governments. In modern, industrial, democratic societies, people get what they deserve. A cynical public with cynical views abdicates the right to determine the products it can buy, the safety it expects and the destiny it imagines. Cynicism thwarts collective involvement and action. It disempowers the individual and transfers authority and control to those who function in self-interest. It invites victimization and exploitation, the very processes that create cynicism. Individually and collectively we make the world we want, a task that can be as easy as making thoughtful choices.

So many of our environmental problems can be addressed by simple changes in attitude. Recent sociological studies have indicated a worrisome rise during the last two decades in the use of “I”, “me” and “mine” instead of “us”, “we” and “they”. This unhealthy trend can be counteracted by thinking in terms of our human community and the environment that sustains it. On a planet where everything is connected to everything else, obsessive self-interest is ultimately unfulfilling and self-defeating. Indeed, if being cynical about everything means that not even cynicism can be trusted, then we can all find better options.

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Shades of Green: Reason, Mood and Globalization

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Human societies do not behave rationally. This is the conclusion reached by Robert Prechter, an American financial guru and social theorist who outlines his ideas in a 1999 book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behaviour and the New Science of Sociometrics (New Scientist, May 22/10).

Prechter argues that societal moods swing from optimism to pessimism – so called Elliott Waves – and these swings control the movement of financial markets, investment strategies, consumer purchasing patterns and even popular trends such as fashions, films, books and music. “Positive moods” are reflected in such words as “unifying”, “liberating”, “joining” and “tolerant”, whereas “negative moods” are indicated by “fragmentation”, “separation”, “restricting” and “bigoted / xenophobic”.

According to fellow scholar, John Casti, the last great “megachange” that buoyed optimism was the official beginning of globalization in 1975 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (Ibid.). This positive mood lasted until 1999 when the real value of money, as measured in gold, peaked. Since then, Casti argues, globalization has created a deepening pessimism. Its very foundations of “income balance, free movement of labour, reduction or removal of trade tariffs, and the like”, have failed. Income disparity and protectionism are increasing, not decreasing.

But the pessimism is rooted more deeply than in commerce and social justice. Casti cites the work of John Petersen, a non-profit think-tank founder whose “predictive modelling” coined “megachanges”. His modelling also identified other unsettling trends linked to globalization, including “the collapse of the global financial system, the end of oil, serious climate change, dramatic rises in food price, and more.”

The ideas of Prechter, Casti and Petersen all identify a generally negative mood coursing through human society. While globalization has brought many promises of prosperity and some clear benefits, beneath the superficial hue of optimism are systemic flaws that are creating a deepening and pervasive apprehension.

The paradox of globalization is that it offers connectivity and cooperation while its size and complexity highlights our individual powerlessness and precariousness. Economic, political, social and environmental globalization also means interdependence and vulnerability – whatever happens anywhere on the planet affects everyone elsewhere. The effect is a feeling of being overwhelmed by information and forces beyond our personal control.

The earthquake and subsequent damage at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is just the most current example. As a consequence of events in Japan, British Columbians are compelled to monitor local rain and seaweed for radiation levels. Rotating electrical outages in Japan have broken the global supply chain for auto manufacturing, one of the world’s most complex. Of the 3,000 parts that go into a car or truck, “each of those parts is made up of hundreds of other pieces supplied by multiple companies. All it takes is for one part to go missing or arrive late, and a vehicle can’t be built” (Globe & Mail, Mar. 29/11). Consequently, auto plants in North America are shut down and workers are laid off. An interruption in the supply of Japanese computer chips and other digital components has the same global effect.

The integration of the world’s financial system into a global network of interconnections creates another kind of precariousness. The ramifications of relaxed lending and investment policies in the US culminated in a 2008 seismic shock to world banks and economies that is still being felt. Consequent debt in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Iceland and Portugal all reverberate around the planet, affecting employment, exchange rates, savings, retirement plans and our individual sense of security.

Terrorism causes global edginess. The unrest generated by a burgeoning human population creates humanitarian, political and military complications that affect all countries. Global food supplies are tight enough that crop failures in Australia, Ukraine or Russia force up the price of bread in Canada. A radical Islamic group in Afghanistan or a deranged dictator in Libya produces global disturbances. A fundamentalist preacher ceremonially burns a Koran in Florida and enraged mobs kill innocent United Nations’ employees in Kandahar.

But the most important influence of all occurs with Earth’s biosphere, the living environment that enwraps our planet. Emissions from coal plants in China or tar sands in Canada bathe the entire world with pollutants. Melting ice in Greenland raises oceans everywhere. Diseases and exotic species spread easily with our global transportation systems. Because communication and media connect instantly to every part of the planet, everywhere becomes local. A round Earth provides no escape.

If the global mood of pessimism is to change to optimism, then our governments must think beyond trade agreements to environmental protocols that protect our atmosphere, oceans, fisheries, forests, soils and climate. Ecological security is primary. Everything depends on it. Although such security can never be guaranteed, at the very least we should have some sense that the deteriorating conditions on our planet are being reversed.

To regain our feeling of individual empowerment, we need a paradigm shift from spending and exploiting to conserving and caring. We also need awareness and initiatives that will counterbalance globalization with localization. These are rational things we could do to improve our mood.

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Shades of Green: The Nuclear Option

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Two of the world’s foremost environmental thinkers, James Lovelock and George Monbiot, have highlighted the seriousness of global warming by endorsing nuclear power as the best energy option presently available if humanity is to avoid a planetary climate meltdown. Monbiot’s endorsement of nuclear power is even more striking given that it was offered in response to the initial crisis at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi reactor.

Lovelock’s position is more easily explained. As the originator of the Gaia Theory and as a biologist and climatologist with a long history of scientific research, Lovelock sees nuclear power as the only option able to sustain our energy-hungry civilization. Because we are unlikely to willingly surrender the amenities of industrial consumerism, the logical solution for Lovelock is that we endure the environmental and financial costs of nuclear power plants.

Monbiot, like Lovelock, is also a clear-thinking rationalist and pragmatist, unswayed by the hopeful prospects of green power. While he gives top priority to renewable energy sources and conservation, he also recognizes we are moving so rapidly toward a climate catastrophe that we need a transition power that will give us time to find a survivable equilibrium with our planet’s biosphere. Curtailing the burning of carbon-emitting fossil fuels, whether this be coal, oil or natural gas, is mandatory. For Monbiot, given a choice between the disadvantages of fossil fuels or nuclear, nuclear is the better of two bad options. And, as he pointed out immediately after the March 11th earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, the 40-year-old Fukushima Daiichi plant performed relatively well considering the forces of nature that assailed it.

But is this good enough for a technology that employs nuclear energies of unforgiving power and unimaginable destruction? Indeed, the unfolding events at Fukushima Daiichi may be a better example of heroic effort to manage disaster than to avert it. Design flaws were discovered after the plant had been built so the General Electric “Mark I” model needed extensive and costly renovations before it could be activated. The plant’s owner, Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), had a history of falsifying records and feigning safety checks. The coastal plant was located within easy reach of tsunamis and the backup diesel generators that were supposed to maintain cooling water to the reactors were placed on low ground subject to flooding. Third level battery power was insufficient. Inadequate safety drills, a false sense of security and then staff exhaustion likely contributed to a diesel generator running out of fuel and an air-flow valve being incorrectly turned off, two lapses that nearly caused uncontrolled meltdown. Human error, an extreme natural disaster and bad design all converged to cause a “low-probability, high-consequence event”, the nuclear industry’s sanitized term for an unmitigated disaster.

Linda Keen, a former President of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and chair of a global safety review of reactors, noted that, “In my experience, I found nuclear engineers extremely optimistic…. They’re optimistic about everything: how fast they’re going to do things, the cost, the idea of whether you are going to have an accident or not” (Globe & Mail, Mar. 16/11). This optimism seems to bathe the entire nuclear industry in a rosy glow – until Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi cast their sobering shadow on reality.

If Monbiot and Lovelock are correct in supporting the nuclear option because our civilization’s energy needs are on a collision course with our climate security, then this may justify the massive subsidies governments commit to build, insure and decommission these power plants – private investors cannot afford such costs. Tepco estimates that collecting and storing the radioactive mess at Fukushima Daiichi and dismantling four of its six reactors will take 30 years and cost $12 billion.

Old reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi vintage were designed to last about 30 years. Newer ones have a life expectancy of 40 to 60 years. So all reactors must eventually be dismantled. The US places this cost at $325 million per reactor. But actual costs usually range from two to nearly four times that amount – a small French reactor recently cost $667 million to dismantle, 20 times the original estimate. The Three Mile Island reactor, which suffered a “core fusion” event in 1979, will cost an estimated $805 million to render safe – costs can only be estimates because high radioactive levels require that nuclear reactors be dismantled in stages that can take up to a 50 years. The core of these reactors, the pressure vessel, is usually buried because no other disposal option is available. A British study estimates that $118 billion will be needed to decommission the country’s 19 functioning nuclear reactors.

Since nuclear reactors have a finite lifespan, the cost of eventually dismantling and replacing the world’s existing supply of approximately 440 – which, incidentally, provide only about 15 percent of today’s electrical energy – will be astronomical. And, given present technology, if this must be done every 40 to 60 years, then nuclear power will be a prohibitively expensive energy of the future.

Prior to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, the fear that halted the expansion of nuclear industry was beginning to abate. Now, of the 300 reactors presently being planned or built, many of these projects will undoubtedly be reviewed.

But the larger question remains. Given rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and the catastrophic effects of global climate change to both the planet’s biosphere and human civilization, what are we to do? James Lovelock, the biologist and climatologist who thinks in terms that span multiple-millennia, seems to give a nod of compassionate resignation to our human folly. George Monbiot, the humanist and problem solver who thinks about the immediacy of the moment, is trying to avert a climate catastrophe. For anyone brave enough to even ponder the subject, the options are daunting.

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Shades of Green: Fukushima Daiichi and Decision Time

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The unfolding events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan are more than a human and environmental disaster. The cooling problem and subsequent radiation leaks that are contaminating food, land and water are tragic reminders of the dilemma facing a growing world population that is demanding increasing amounts of energy to fuel higher levels of production and consumption. The rising complexity of technology, the looming shortage of resources and the physical limits imposed by a finite planet all compound this dilemma. Indeed, Fukushima Daiichi is a symbol of the fragile successes and the menacing failings of our sophisticated age. Thus Japan is providing a glimpse into the future of every modern society everywhere.

Just as modern Japan arose by embracing industrialization at the end of the Tokugawa Period, it also arose from the ruin of World War II by embracing technology. And the Japanese success has been stupendous. Within a few decades of the wreckage of 1945, it had become the second largest economy on the planet – it is now third, after recently being overtaken by China. The world is full of Japanese technology, innovation and products: electronics, computers, digitization, cars, ships and robotics. Its manufacturing, buying and consumption habits affect the economy of the world.

Although modern Japan has a people who are dedicated and industrious, it doesn’t have the local natural resources to empower this capability. So it imports vast quantities of raw materials and exports them as finished products. And it has solved its energy problem by adopting nuclear power, the same kind of technological sophistication that has brought it other successes.

Japan is the third largest user of nuclear energy in the world. Its 55 nuclear reactors are clean, efficient and perfectly tailored to the compact, dense and vigorous character of the country. The reactors are also an ideal match for the profligate use of energy that powers Japan’s industry, cities, trains, entertainment and communication systems. Indeed, Japan’s social, cultural and economic vitality seems to be more closely connected to massive quantities of electricity than almost any country in the world. The humming activity of Japan is synonymous with the humming current coursing through its ubiquitous power lines.

The choice Japan made decades ago to adopt nuclear power as the solution to its energy needs is now a choice confronting the rest of the world. The other options seem fraught with shortcomings. Coal, although plentiful, is polluting, and its high carbon dioxide output makes it the worst possible energy source on a planet subject to the looming effects of greenhouse warming. Most of the world’s hydro-electric potential has already been harnessed. Oil is almost as dirty as coal, and its supply is on the verge of falling below demand. Renewable energies such as wind, solar, tidal and geothermal may not be able to meet the growing needs of industrialization, consumption and population. Conservation and efficiency, although helpful, can’t seem to compensate for rising energy use. At the time and under the circumstances, Japan’s decision to go nuclear seemed a smart strategy.

But the twin traumas of a massive earthquake and a huge tsunami have changed this calculus. The near-meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979 and the explosion at Chernobyl in 1986 come flooding back as vivid, cautionary memories. Nuclear waste still remains an unsolved problem. Now the reactors at Fukushima Daiichi – Japan’s third nuclear disaster after Hiroshima and Nagasaki – are a reminder that the technology, regardless of the precautions and safeguards, is complex and unforgiving. Any human error, laxity or failed foresight can reap horrendous consequences. Are the risks worth the benefits?

The answer is not apparent in the changing economics of energy production. A new nuclear power plant takes 10 years and $6 billion to build – a cost that is rising rapidly as increasingly stringent safety measures have to be incorporated into designs. A comparable coal plant takes 3 years and $3 billion – coal is plentiful but dirty and sequestering its carbon is expensive and unproven. A gas plant can be built in 2 years at a cost of $1 billion – although shale gas is now being found in massive quantities, the “fracking” required to release it from rock may contaminate groundwater and aquifers, and it still produces about half the carbon dioxide of coal. The only wholly positive option is clean, renewable energy sources. Its efficiency is increasing and its cost is decreasing – but critics contend this technology is not yet remotely capable of meeting our huge energy needs. Conservation, too, is only a partial solution.

So this brings the subject back to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. The unfolding disaster there is an existential moment, a crisis that is an opportunity for everyone on the planet to awaken to the energy dilemma facing us all. The Japanese have responded with heroic calm to the multiple calamities of earthquake, tsunami and radiation. Some workers have undoubtedly sacrificed their health and lives to keep Fukushima Daiichi from becoming another Chernobyl.

Although we are not required to be so brave, Fukushima Daiichi is a vivid reminder that the time has come for us to think very, very seriously about our own energy needs, lifestyles and priorities. Whether or not we have noticed, the unfolding events in Japan are an object lesson for us.

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Shades of Green: Suzuki, Madoff and Ponzi Schemes

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David Suzuki’s presence at the March showing of his biographical film, Force of Nature, guaranteed that the Quadra Island Community Centre would be packed. The film itself was both informative and poignant, an artful blending of one of Suzuki’s most powerful and eloquent environmental speeches with scenes from his childhood, his rising profile as a geneticist, his ascent as an internationally known broadcaster – his television program, The Nature of Things, has been running for decades – his media status as a world-acclaimed environmentalist, and now his additional role as a senior citizen and a grandfather. Suzuki’s personal and reflective comments about his life were insightful, honest, brave and inspiring.

But the evening also had a sad and sobering edge. While Suzuki’s enthusiastic response to questions after the film revealed a passion still burning with intensity, he seemed frustrated that his tenacity, his teaching, his warnings, his TV programs and his profile as an advocate for the sanctity of nature had not translated into significant environmental reform. Indeed, from Suzuki’s perspective as a scientist, our collective human behaviour is plunging our planet into ecological crisis, with little more than token efforts to avert a looming catastrophe. And Canada, his home country, has a government so indifferent – sometimes even obstructionist – as to be an exasperating embarrassment.

Suzuki attempted to attribute his failed influence on the character of television itself, a medium with shrinking units of concentration and rising levels of superficiality that seems to translate even dire subjects into entertainment and passivity. But a much better explanation for his failure may come from the ponzi scheme that allowed Bernard Madoff to bilk billions of dollars from usually thoughtful investors. This is a subject that Margaret Heffernan explores most thoughtfully in Why We See No Evil (Globe & Mail, Feb. 19/11). If Heffernan is correct, the forces that allowed Madoff to operate for so long are also allowing the environmental degradation of our planet.

Heffernan argues that people have “a preference for the familiar”, a trait that keeps them doing what they usually do, whether it be investing money in an unsafe place or exploiting their surroundings beyond ecological sustainability. Just as they have an affinity for other people of the same culture, tastes and values, they also have an affinity for familiar products, attitudes and behaviour. If they are accustomed to high levels of consumption, easy garbage disposal, throw-away products, foreign holidays, high meat diets, new technology and big cars, then their inclination is to continue with this lifestyle, despite all the warnings that this behaviour may be fundamentally flawed. Just as a momentum of common acceptance, trust and opinion blinds them to a faulty investment scheme, it also blinds them to the ecological damage surrounding them.

Heffernan notes that this “willful blindness” is not a legal excuse or defence in law. People who could have known, and should have known, are treated as if they did know, and are therefore held responsible for their behaviour. Although people may feign unawareness and pretend they are not responsible for their investment strategies or environmental impact, they are ultimately culpable. At some point in the accumulation of available evidence, ignorance becomes intentional denial and is no longer available as an excuse.

This “willful blindness” also works at a “collective” level. As Heffernan notes, “the availability of others to take action blinds us to our personal responsibility and capacity” to act. Events have illustrated innumerable times that “the larger the number of witnesses to a crime or accident, the less likely it is than anyone will intervene.” This form of mass inertia begins to explain how a society is immobilized to take collective measures to rectify an environmental problem. Everyone is waiting for someone else to act. Governments wait for direction from their voting public while the voting public waits for initiatives from their governments. Meaningful change must overcome this handicap.

In a complicating twist to this process, Heffernan points out that “organizations can make themselves structurally blind by what they reward and what they don’t.” In a “strong sales culture” such as banking, scrutiny is low because the objective is to move money, not to judge it. This is why banks never exposed Madoff. Transpose this tendency to a consumer society and the environmental implications are immediately evident. Caution, restraint and sustainability are not its guiding principles. Participation in such a society is measured by spending – the latest gadget, fashion, trend or fad – but not restraint. Join in or be left out. The net result is a high-speed pillaging of the planet by a willful and collective blindness. No wonder Suzuki feels ineffective.

In the last part of Heffernan article, she points out that “seeing what is going on inside our organizations is the toughest question of all – and the bigger the business, the harder the problem.” The wider and deeper Madoff’s ponzi scheme spread, the more invisible it became and the more difficult it was to stop. The same dynamic applies to a consumer society. Recognizing its failings and steering it to sustainability is an enormous challenge. Accordingly, those who are heroic enough to warn about faulty investment schemes, precarious financial systems or collapsing ecologies are rare – and may even suspect and vilified for their efforts.

Heffernan reminds us, however, that “history is full of remarkable individuals who have proved it is possible to see better.” They invariably share the traits of being optimists, detailed thinkers, concerned for victims, seekers of fresh wisdom and eschewers of conventional leadership – all the attributes demonstrated by Suzuki in Force of Nature. But Heffernan also notes with some foreboding that such people often become disillusioned. Perhaps Suzuki – and everyone like him – should brace themselves for this prospect.

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Enbridge's catastrophic 2010 oil spill on the Kalamazoo River in Michigan

Enbridge: When Intentions Are Not Offers

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The response of Enbridge to its spill of over 3 millions litres of oil from its ruptured pipeline into Michigan’s Kalamazoo River in July, 2010, should serve as a cautionary tale for anyone who thinks assurances negotiated with corporations are of any durable substance. In the single-minded quest for winning prospective profits or avoiding public relations catastrophes, corporations will typically make promises that are eventually fulfilled only in their own interests. Enbridge’s current legal manoeuvrings are a model example.

 

Immediately following the spill that contaminated about 55 km of river, Enbridge said it would pay for all damages. While a serious environmental impact could not be avoided, at least the public outrage could be quelled by a promise of compensation. Enbridge is now retracting its promise and contesting the claims against it. The legal thinking employed in this evasion of responsibility is worth noting.

 

Enbridge is arguing that it is not responsible for all the assessed damages of the spill because the actions of government officials in declaring a state of emergency, in recommending evacuation, and in closing the river to all public activity, incurred costs for which the corporation should not be legally liable. In int own words, Enbridge’s defence is that “federal, state and/or local authorities and agencies have mandated, directed, approved and/or ratified the alleged actions or omissions” for which Enbridge is expected to pay. Had the various authorities not taken the actions they deemed necessary to safeguard the public, the costs to Enbridge would have been lower. An assessment of Enbridge’s financial obligations will be mired in litigation for years.

 

Given this protracted litigation, Enbridge’s soothing assurance that it “remains committed to paying all non-fraudulent claims that are directly related to the incident” appear to be another empty public relations promise. In the legal challenge Enbridge is undertaking, the meaning of “directly related” must now be determined. So, too, must “non-fraudulent claims”, a determination now complicated by the degree to which the “actions or omissions” of government officials de-legitimized such claims. Add more years to the litigation process.

The lesson to be learned from this particular event is that corporations will initially provide whatever assurances are necessary to advance their profit objectives or to avoid a public relations fiasco. However, when confronted with the actual social, economic and environmental costs of their actions or oversights, the well-being of their shareholders becomes paramount. While affable executives may present a positive public image of corporations, the profit imperative commonly dilutes any admirable principles. Corporations are not philanthropic organizations interested in either fairness or justice; they are amoral legal entities that will only pay what is in their own interests to pay. Their explicit and fiduciary duty is to their shareholders. And in the world of law, where sophisticated legal strategists can discover complexities that can stall settlements nearly indefinitely, the length of the delay is determined by the net benefit to the corporation. Victims are not a consideration ‹ if they ever were.

 

Examples abound beyond Enbridge and its oil spill in the Kalamazoo River. Biologists have noted that BP’s strategy of spraying an estimated 7.2 million litres of toxic dispersants on the estimated 700 million litres of oil that erupted for months from its Macondo drilling site in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 may have been far more environmentally damaging than letting the oil wash ashore where it could be collected for safe disposal. But the public relations image of such visible contamination was far worse for BP’s reputation than hiding the oil with dispersants. The implication is that the corporate interest superseded the environmental interest.

 

The 1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska is a classic case of corporate litigation taking priority over fairness and justice. Exxon policy was to continually challenge the initial damage penalty of $5 billion, litigating details of the judgement until the human victims of the spill either died, were exhausted by the protracted court cases, or simply moved elsewhere to rebuild their shattered lives. After years of litigation, the US Supreme Court eventually reduced the damages to $507.5 million ‹ a profitable corporate strategy, despite the massive legal fees.

 

Business, of course, is always business. This is the heartless and amoral rationale that is supposed to comfort individuals, communities and environments that fall victim to corporate actions, omissions or oversights. Pulp mills open with lofty promises until they close with obligatory regrets. Lumber mills sustain families and towns until unfortunate necessity requires their demise. Salmon farms pledge risk-free ecological operations until biological reality collides with untenable assurances. Mines promise responsible operation until unforeseen circumstances create unmanageable problems.

 

Now Enbridge is proposing to build a 1,172 km Northern Gateway pipeline from Alberta to Kitimat through some of the most challenging and remote territory on the planet, a project that will expose rivers, landscapes and a pristine BC coast to inevitable oil spills. Enbridge is enticing reluctant First Nations with financial incentives approaching $1 billion. Its corporate machinery will comfort the public with the usual assurances of safety, precaution and reliability.

 

But the public should always be wary of corporations bearing promises. Witness the Kalamazoo River in Michigan, the Macondo site in the Gulf of Mexico and the Exxon Valdez in Alaska as three reminders that corporate promises can end in environmental disaster, personal grief and protracted litigation. The ingenuity that makes corporations so successful can also be turned against the society that is supposed to benefit from their existence. Forget ethics. Whether or not corporations keep their promises depends on the business of business.

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Shades of Green: Food, Glorious Food

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The unfolding food crisis on the planet is a convincing argument for protecting local agricultural land, for encouraging small farms and for establishing backyard gardens. Indeed, global food security seems stressed as never before. And a partial solution to this crucial problem is the utilization of all the local resources.

The importance of local food sources is defined by the global situation. The cost of food, as measured by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index, is at its highest value ever – the 2008 record index of 224.1 for 55 essential food products has reached 231. Crop failures caused by extreme weather in several primary grain producing areas – Russia, Ukraine, Australia and Canada – have combined with rising oil prices – about 40% of industrial fertilizer comes from oil – to lower supply and raise prices. While costlier food is a burden more easily absorbed by affluent countries, expensive food creates havoc in poor ones.

Although the estimated 700-900 million of the world’s poor suffer in silence, food shortages have recently caused riots in Bolivia, Peru, Mozambique, Haiti, Indonesia and India. The recent political upheaval in Tunisia was sparked by a food riot. And the fact that Arab nations are the world’s largest single importers of grain causes a vulnerability and tension that is connected to the current paroxysms of unrest passing from country to country across North Africa and the Middle East.

Population growth presents its own challenges to food supplies. Within 40 years, global food production will have to increase by at least 40 percent to feed the additional 2.5 billion people who will then inhabit a planet endowed with just 11 percent arable land. This challenge is complicated by rising affluence that increases per-capita food consumption, by threatened water shortages that impair crop growth, and by widespread soil erosion and degradation that is reducing arable land at a rate of about 10 million hectares per year.

The so-called Green Revolution provided a temporary solution to the food shortages of the 1960s and ’70s. But it created other problems. It increased water consumption beyond sustainable levels, caused a false sense of food security, and lower price of food ended research for further innovation and productivity.

In anticipation of food shortages, some cash-rich countries are now buying agricultural land in poorer countries. Future political tension is likely to be caused by the more than $100 billion spent on this “agrarian-colonialism”. South Korea has a 99 year lease on 1 million hectares of Madagascar. Saudi Arabia has acquired 500,000 hectares in Indonesia. Kuwait and Qatar are buying land in Vietnam. Nearly 20 percent of Laos has been signed over to foreign owners. Even Ukraine and Brazil are target properties. As China’s own agricultural land suffers the multiple effects of erosion, depletion, contamination and desertification, its need for food security is inspiring heavy investment in fertile swaths of Africa, Russia and the Philippines.

Meanwhile, the decision of affluent countries to convert food crops into bio-fuel is increasing the stress – about 30 percent of edible corn has been diverted to ethanol production. Speculation in the global financial markets adds further costs to those who can least afford to buy sustaining nutrition.

Nick Cullather argues that agricultural policy since the 1930s has created other problems (Globe & Mail, Jan. 26/11). Both Germany and Russia began to isolate the “agricultural sector” from the larger economy in their quest to give priority to industrial growth. Food production was degraded to a secondary consideration. The new function of rural regions was to provide a “reservoir of cheap labour” for urban centres. This thinking became so widespread by the end of the 1930s that, according to Rebecca West, all communist, fascist and capitalist countries had adopted “the insane dispensation which pays the food-producers worst of all workers” (Ibid.). The consequences of this absurdity persist today in boom-and-bust food production, badly manages soils, abandoned farms, impoverished farmers and social unrest.

As Cullather reminds us, all civilizations are founded on food. His solution is to pay farmers what they deserve. He believes that the agricultural sector is extremely responsive to economic incentives and, if it were elevated from its “subordinate status”, the ingenuity and resourcefulness of farmers could do much to address the challenge of feeding a rising population in an age of climate change.

Meeting this challenge could be aided by elevating the status and income of farmers, by changing tax structures to favour the protection and use of agricultural land, by eliminating the subsidies that deflate the market value of crops, and by encouraging local food production and processing. Farmers’ markets, community gardens, backyard vegetable plots and urban farming can do much to diversify production, provide fresh produce, offer healthy recreation, furnish rewarding employment, reduce transportation costs, create independence from imported crops, and relieve food stress.

If predictions are correct, the challenge of producing enough food for a growing population on a shrinking planet is only going to increase. Surely this prospect should induce us all to think more seriously about food. After all, there’s nothing quite like it.

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Shades of Green: The Pursuit of Happiness

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Perhaps the pursuit of happiness was never such a good idea. But, in 1776, this objective from the French Enlightenment seemed to be convincing enough that it was incorporated into the Constitution of the newly formed United States of America as a founding principle.

Happiness as an objective should have been suspect from the beginning. The serious pursuit of it arose out of the emotional exuberance of 18th century Baroque that then became the decorative frivolity of Rococo. Justification for creating these two aesthetic styles in Western civilization seemed more closely related to extravagant indulgence than temperate responsibility. The music of both periods was sublime – Bach evolved into Mozart – but the pursuit of happiness itself came from the apex of decadent aristocratic life, before its privileges were shaken by the seismic revolutions in America and France, and the subsequent political shocks that radically altered Europe’s social structure.

This history is the primary reason why happiness should be doubted as a founding principle for any country. Happiness is essentially frivolous, superficial and ephemeral. It is not as profound, solid or reliable as contentment, tranquility or cooperation. As an objective, happiness is restless, uncertain and fickle, hardly suitable for a new America that prided itself as the living political embodiment of the Enlightenment’s high principles. But this obsession with happiness does begin to explain the present financial dilemma facing the United States and those other countries that have modelled their economies on the naive optimism underlying the dubious ideals of unfettered capitalism and boundless consumerism.

One of the financial legacies of the unrestrained pursuit of happiness is debt. The US budgetary deficit for 2011 is $1.6 trillion. Its national debt is $14.3 trillion and counting. The US government’s budgetary strategy is frozen in a stalemate between two mutually incompatible paths to happiness: the Republicans refuse to increase taxes to reduce debt while the Democrats refuse to relinquish the social programs that are too costly for the present tax regime. Unless this impasse can be broken, the annual US deficit is expected to increase to about $10 trillion by 2021. By then, the US will have spent as much as $200 trillion on miscellaneous programs and entitlements that can only be financed by borrowing. The burden of debt will eventually become more than the country can bear and the result will be financial and political collapse. Traces of this process are already occurring in many US states.

In The Empire of Debt, Jason Kirby (Maclean’s, Feb. 14/11) refers to the Harvard economic historian, Niall Ferguson, who notes that in recent centuries the empires of the Spanish, French, Ottoman and British all collapsed under the weight of excessive debt. When the cost of servicing their debt reached 50 to 60 percent of revenues, and when interest rates rose as investors lost confidence in the security of their loans, the collapse of these empires occurred as quickly as 15 to 20 years.

A survey of 26 of the major industrial economies of the world – excluding only China – indicates an epidemic of ascending debt. Recent massive infusions of cash to Iceland, Ireland and Greece have avoided default on loans and averted a global financial crisis. But from Australia at 40 percent of its GDP to Japan at 210 percent, the debt situation of the world’s major economies looks gloomy – the US sits at 100 percent of its GDP while Canada, at 83 percent, is burdened with record high consumer debt. Japan owes $11.98 trillion, just short of 1 quadrillion yen. Its economic structure, the third largest on the planet, is described as a “Madoff scheme” that is doomed to fail.

The seriousness of all this debt is usually excused by the argument that expanding economic activity reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio, thereby decreasing the seriousness of any deficits – if the economy continues to expand faster than the debt then the burden of debt seems to shrink.This is the thinking used to justify deficit and debt. But such logic fails when considering that any particular economy could contract, a clear possibility given that countries exist in competitive relationships with each other, that global financial structures are inherently unstable, and that finite natural resources are not perpetually available to fuel ever-expanding economies.

This is the darkening shadow that hangs over the entire global financial system. Our economies and our lifestyles are founded on the monetary security of a system built entirely on precarious trust and rash optimism. When stresses such as political unrest, oil shortage, crop failure or climate catastrophes are added to the unstable intricacies of globalization, then the prospects seem increasingly uncertain and sobering.

Many human aspirations are laudable – if the aspirations are wise. But the pursuit of happiness may be the most elusive and empty of all aspirations. Indeed, the root cause of the multitude of crises we are now encountering – from financial to environmental – may be this superficial aspiration. Our imaginations have linked the unfulfillable quest for happiness with materialism and consumerism, an association that the machinery of economics is obligingly exploiting to its own impersonal ends. The result for us is frenzied effort, perpetual restlessness, eternal dissatisfaction and the mindless exploitation of Earth’s biosystems beyond sustainability.

Perhaps we should accept that the pursuit of happiness has overreached the reality of limits and utility, and that we urgently need a replacement that is more nourishing, substantial and promising.

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