I don’t have a crystal ball, but today I’m going to pretend that I do. And I’m going to peer into that imaginary crystal ball and make a few predictions relating to the future – or lack thereof – of my all-time favourite BC premier, Gordon Campbell.

I choose to engage in this exercise now because this Wednesday evening, while Rafe and I are taking to the stage of the Capitol Theatre in Nelson, along with our guest speaker Corky Evans, kicking off our “Take Back Our BC” Tour, Campbell will be taking to the airwaves for a mysterious “state of the province” speech – which he booked three weeks ago for 7 PM on Global TV. As much as I’m looking forward to our own show, part of me rues not being able to take in this piece of television history live, a big bowl of Orville Redenbacher’s nestled in my lap. But fret not for me – I will be TiVo-ing it for posterity (for you luddites, that’s the digital equivalent of a VCR).

Incidentally, to get an idea of how historic this really is for Campbell, note that the last time he engaged in such a stunt it involved a certain Hawaiian misadventure and teary performance worthy of Meryl Streep.

(If I sound like I’m savouring this moment, that is, the crumbling of Campbell’s career – after years of making it my solemn duty to help bring down the man who has savaged everything I hold dear in my beloved British Columbia – well, that’s because I am).

So, making no pretense to any insider information, I thought it would be fun to hypothesize as to the content of that speech, and as to Campbell’s political future beyond it. Besides my imaginary crystal ball, the primary tool I’m relying on here is the use of trajectories. That is to say, if you showed me a car speeding at 100 mph towards a very tall cliff, up until the moment it reached the very edge of the precipice, I wouldn’t have to actually witness the vehicle plummeting to its demise in order to make an educated guess as to its fate. Kind of like Gordon Campbell’s career right now.

So – drumroll please – here’s what I see (and don’t see) in that fateful television address and beyond:

1. Campbell won’t dare discuss the Olympics, nor will his attire include red mittens

2. He will be surprisingly self-depricating and contrite, with a level of insincerity few could muster…and none of us will buy it

3. He will announce moving up the HST referendum

4. He will largely steer clear of the recent ignominious conclusion to the Basi-Virk trial; though he may be forced to touch on it ever so briefly, he will avoid going into detail like the plague

5. He wont be able to resist waxing eloquent in his defence about his “strong economic management” of the province in challenging times

6. Finally, he will – unbelievably to many including myself – offer some hint of an exit strategy from his role as leader of the BC Liberal Party… It won’t be immediate or well-defined, but it will be enough to signal that he won’t be seeking to retain his position into the next provincial election

7. Beyond this television address, I predict that, in spite of his reluctance to nail down an imminent and specific retreat, he will soon – perhaps as soon as his party’s forthcoming convention in November – be forced to quit his post by his own party, much sooner than he would like.

8. A little further into the future I see Campbell accepting some position in Ottawa – non-elected of course – perhaps a Senate seat, or some high-ranking federal commission engineered by Stephen Harper. That is unless…

9….He proves too toxic for Ottawa, in which case, after a brief disappearance from public view, he will wind up on the board of some sympathetic corporation, one to which he has been helpful in office – such as Rio Tinto-Alcan, Accenture, General Electric, Kinder-Morgan, Enbridge…suffice it to say the list of possibilities is long here – he’s be oh so helpful to so many of them.

To be clear, I make no warranties as to the accuracy of these predictions, not having the benefit of an actual crystal ball, telepathy, or any good connections inside the Liberal caucus. In fact, I expect I’ll be shown to be mostly wrong – but it’s always entertaining to use one’s imagination. Nor am I taking bets, but should you feel compelled to create a little office pool of your own, I’m sure that could be good fun for you too.

So while I’m showing my new film in Nelson about the Enbridge pipeline and coastal Tar Sands supertankers that Gordon Campbell campaigned on in 2009 – and Rafe is railing on about our rivers and public energy system which Campbell has ravaged and given away for cheap – I suggest you avail yourself of this unique moment in BC history and tune into Global TV at 7 PM this Wednesday evening (but not, of course, if you live in Nelson – come to our show instead and TiVo Campbell like me).

And don’t forget the popcorn.