Systemic Thinking and Big Pictures

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We are please to begin publishing at TheCanadian.org Ray Grigg’s weekly Shades of Green series. A warm welcome to Ray from The Common Sense Canadian.

Systemic thinking reveals the complexity of almost everything. A careful and methodical examination of most subjects exposes an intricacy far greater than mere details – how the details relate to each other and conjoin with seemingly diverse factors are as important as the details themselves. Delving into such interactions is necessary to understand the world around us and to manage the outcomes of the things we do.

Consider the ordinary biological act of a man and woman conceiving a child. Thomas Malthus, the 19th century clergyman and political economist (1766-1834), calculated the rate of human reproduction, measured it against the food production of his time, and anticipated an eventual catastrophe as the number of people eventually exceeded their ability to feed themselves. Fortunately, Malthus’ prediction did not occur as anticipated because of industrial agriculture, the so-called “green revolution” and the distribution of the food being produced. But our population has risen to meet this increased supply, and an anticipated 40 percent increase in our numbers to about 9.5 billion by 2050 may combine with other factors to confound our ingenuity.

Because systemic thinking explores beyond simplicities to complexities, a study of food production for such an enormous population must also consider the constraints imposed by limited supplies of water, an essential agricultural ingredient that is now becoming scarce as demand continues to rise beyond availability. Oil is another constraining factor. Huge quantities are required for fertilizing, planting, harvesting, transporting and processing. If oil supplies replicate the situation with water, the price of food will rise and the economic costs will unleash disruptive and unmanageable social and political complications.

Soil presents another challenge to global food production. Just as demand is rising, erosion and degradation are reducing the amount and fertility of soil, a handicap that has to be combatted with ever more oil-based fertilizer. Even the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is changing the way plants grow and produce crops – small increases in carbon dioxide seem to assist growth but do not necessarily yield more of the crops we want from plants. Political and economic stability are also factors that can enhance or curtail food production. Apply systemic thinking to any process and the simple rapidly becomes complicated.

Traditional economic theory, for example, seems to be based on the principle of indefinite growth. Systems thinking exposes the inherent contraction of perpetually expanding consumption, profit and wealth on a planet of rising populations and finite resources. Logic would argue that some kind of homeostasis or equilibrium must eventually be reached between human enterprises and nature’s limits. Indeed, we may now be experiencing this anticipated limit with resource scarcity, habitat loss, species extinction, endemic pollution and global warming, all of which can be taken as indications that we are approaching unsustainable levels of growth. Simple biological and physical limits are defining what we must accept as “sustainable development”.

Apply systemic thinking to climate matters and the insights are even more complex and challenging. Our massive carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are not only increasing global temperatures but are also acidifying our oceans. The same process that is causing extreme weather, inflicting extensive property damage, altering plant growth, creating refugees, instigating social turmoil and inciting political unrest is also impairing oceanic food production precisely at a time when we need to be aiding rather than handicapping its productive capacity. Systemic thinking can help us understand complications, define sustainability and engineer outcomes beneficial for ourselves and the environment that supports us.

If we consider only disconnected details and don’t employ systemic thinking, we get misleading answers to simple questions. Why, for example, are parts of North America, Europe and China having such cold winter weather if global warming is occurring? The details seem to contradict the theory.

In keeping with systemic thinking, the answer is complex. Essentially, large areas of exposed ocean from melted Arctic ice seem to have created high pressure bulges of warm air that are deflecting the usual west-to-east “polar vortex”, the jet stream loop that keeps cold Arctic weather separated from balmier southern weather. The destabilized and fractured polar vortex is now moving in giant inverted U-shapes, sweeping warm air northward to the Arctic and returning chilling winds southward. These “meridional flows” are becoming more common as Arctic sea ice melts. The result is bitter cold and snow in southern areas. “The jet stream breakdown last winter,” writes James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “was the most extreme in 145 years of record. Loss of sea ice is certainly not the whole story behind cold mid-latitude winters, but it’s a constant push in that direction” (Globe & Mail, Dec. 31/10). As parts of North America, Europe and China shiver, parts of the Arctic, such as Iqaluit, bask in temperatures 15°C above normal. The average global temperature continues to rise but the heat gets distributed abnormally.

People who like tradition, predictability and simple answers don’t like systemic thinking. Neither do people who place their personal ambitions above ecosystem and societal interests – systemic thinking results in complex insights that invariably challenge narrow biases, discredit shallow perspectives and deflate the credibility of individual certainty.

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About Ray Grigg

Ray Grigg is in his ninth year as a weekly environmental columnist for the Campbell River Courier-Islander on BC's Vancouver Island. Before this column, titled Shades of Green - now appearing on commonsensecanadian.ca as well - Ray wrote a bi-weekly environmental column for five years. He is the author of seven internationally published books on Oriental philosophy, specifically Zen and Taoism. His academic background is in English literature, psychology, cultural history, and philosophy. He has travelled to some 45 countries around the globe.

5 thoughts on “Systemic Thinking and Big Pictures

  1. Well, this is quite a futile argument. Those who believe do! Us who don’t, don’t!

    But us are not alone http://www.weatheraction.com/

    Earth cools. Earth warms. Been doing it for eons, well before Lucy!

    And it’s probably not a healthy mental sport to keep castigating our selves. We have a very destructive power structure to face down that likes nothing more than them and us squabbles over “west-to-east polar vortex U-turn” or going south happy myths or Y front jockey shorts.

    There are some very, very urgent issues: R of R that Rafe, and water born feedlots that Alex keeps pointing out, and many, many more. They have nothing to do with warm/cool and a lot to do with dishonesty and criminal activity on the part of the power structure.

    Our financial system is based on destructive money as debt. Is it any wonder every one, every company, every government is scrambling to keep up: mindless devastation of the wilderness while self-indulgent do-gooders dream of a Walden Pond long lost?

    So long we keep the conversation polite they run amuck.

  2. Up here in the Cariboo we have seen our winters become milder. We rarely see the temperature drop below-25, and then only for a day or two. In the 70s and early 80s we could be sure of several weeks of -40.

    The pine beetle’s devastation could not have happened in those days; the beetles were kept in check by the cold killing most of them each winter.
    Now the beetles have ranged far south of areas where the cold can effect their survival.

    Last summer’s firestorms were unprecedented and massive. We had to drive over 200 miles to get out of the smoke, and only had one direction to go.

    Scorn and derision will not alter the truth. Apologists for industrial insanity are in denial, and like Tony Hayward of BP, will say anything which suits their agenda of ongoing, unbridled development, regardless of consequence.

    Nature isn’t fooled, and we are seeing the early stages of environmental and social changes predicted by experts for 50 or 60 years and by ancient cultures for millenia.

    When Obama stated the oil released by BP was “all gone” he demonstrated the lies are supported by the highest human authorities- which carries not a gram of weight with nature – the real authority!

  3. . . . of course Mr. GRIGG . . . apologies . . . attribute it to my 81 years and glaucoma!

    “People who like tradition, predictability and simple answers . . . ”

    What hubris!

    Huh! Speak for yourself!

    People, you sir, who practice your, “Systemic thinking” are doing exactly that!

    As you hole up on your remote Isle mesmerized by your “west-to-east polar vortex U-turn” (wow, there’s a conversation stopper!), I forgive your tunnel vision.

    As you pontificate in your wilderness redoubt the most essential habit is to practice what you preach.

    Awaiting the next gas guzzling reefer, be it water born air or submarine, to supply your remote essentials or indeed as you await with fevered anticipation a visit to your 46th country is hardly . . . errrr . . . practicing . . . errrrr . . . anything other than pure systemic self indulgence.

    Do you not understand that your indulgencies, conveniently ignoring the real culprits, among others, algorithmic trading of digital phantoms on a screen, is “systemic thinquing”?

    Best tilt at the right windmills Mr. Grigg.

  4. Being a confused, amateur, denialist I expect short shrift questioning Mr. Giles’ compose systemic thinquing.

    Yet, my “methodical examination” of the literature leads me NOT to his sublime conclusion.

    He seems unwilling to connect the dots. Living on a remote island, does his “systemic thinquing” analyze as how his daily vitals get up to his remoteness? Etc. etc . . .

    Indeed, his system leads him to AGW: i.e. it is your fault, his fault, mine too: Rafe’s junkets to Soulless Dubai. Pollution! Pay your taxes, keep it rolling!

    Last summer, sailing past his island, nearly freezing, asking, what the hell happened to global warming, had I known of the “polar vortex U-turn” I could have better enjoyed the snowcapped mountains in July.

    Wow, though, I got myself big-time trouble, questioning one Mr. Beer, of Tyee fame, and his aggressively defended contention AGW “scientific consensus” is for real.

    Scientific consensus? Ummmm, isn’t the point of science to constantly QUESTION?

    Mr. Giles’ captivating smile will seduce many readers yet, I feel so vulnerable out on a limb questioning his erudite reasoning! As for AGW, we’re barking up the wrong tree!

    How comfy to be so sure of yourself . . .
    When all is said and done, despite the smug smile, is not living on an island just urban sprawl redux?
    http://theyorkshirelad.ca/3sailing/desolation.sound.2008/sailing.desolation.sound.2008.html

  5. As a Vancouver Island resident here in British Columbia, I have had the pleasure of meeting Ray Grigg and reading his challenging, exciting insights in our local media for a couple of years. Each column leads one to jaw-dropping shocks as Ray takes his extensive scholarship and knits it together with everyday life. Challenging? Always. Boring? Never.

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