Harper in danger of slipping to third place: New polls
Read this Aug. 28 story from CBC.ca and political columnist Éric Grenier’s Poll Tracker series, noting recent polling trends that suggest the Harper Conservatives are in danger of being leap-frogged by the Liberals – with the NDP minting a comfortable lead over both parties.
Are the Conservatives in danger of dropping into third place?
Recent polls suggest that the Conservatives may be in the midst of a slide in public support. The party is averaging 28.3 per cent in the CBC Poll Tracker, marking one of their lowest ebbs in the polls since last year. They now stand just 1.4 points above the Liberals, who are pegged at 26.9 per cent support. The New Democrats lead with 35.5 per cent support, a surge largely driven by strong poll numbers in Quebec.
This has pushed them largely out of the range of the Conservatives in the projected seat count. With these numbers, the NDP would likely win between 124 and 153 seats, with the Conservatives winning between 92 and 132. There is more Conservative overlap with the Liberals at this stage, with the latter party in a position to win between 70 and 106 seats.
The diverging fortunes of the NDP and Conservatives emerged in a series of polls released this week. The first, by the Angus Reid Institute, gave the New Democrats a seven-point edge over the Tories, at 37 to 30 per cent support among eligible voters. The Liberals trailed in the poll with 24 per cent.
A poll by Forum Research for the Toronto Star then raised a few eyebrows, and with good reason. Published Thursday, it placed the New Democrats in the lead with 40 per cent support, a score the NDP has never managed in any poll under either Jack Layton or Thomas Mulcair. In second place was the Liberal Party with 30 per cent. The Conservatives were pegged at just 23 per cent support, a number that the party has not matched in any poll in more than 10 years.
Though the margins were extreme and likely exaggerated, subsequent polling by Ipsos Reid and EKOS Research has corroborated the underlying trends.