Canadian oil industry slashes production forecast by 1.1 million barrels/day due to price slump
Read this June 10 Calgary Herald story by Stephen Ewart on the Canadian oil industry’s diminished projections for daily production, amidst $50 oil:
Well, there’s a quick 1.1 million barrels a day towards the no-carbon economy.
Day One of the 85-year time frame G7 leaders established this week to phase out carbon fuels by the end of the century saw Canada’s oil industry sharply lower its forecast for production growth over the next 15 years but it has more to do with economics than politics.
“The primary driver is the change to lower oil prices since last year” said Greg Stringham, vice-president of oilsands and markets for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. “It’s a much slower pace of growth but it is still growing.”
CAPP released its annual Crude Oil Forecast on Tuesday that projects Canada’s oil production will grow by 40 per cent by 2030 to 5.3 million barrels a day. However, it is 1.1 million barrels a day less than forecast last year when oil prices were more than $45 US a barrel higher.
Last June — as West Texas Intermediate crude sold for almost $108 a barrel — CAPP’s annual survey of member companies said oil production in Canada would reach 6.4 million barrels a day in 2030.
The oilsands — singled out by environmentalists as the poster child for problems with carbon fuels — will likely account for 860,000 barrels a day of the forgone production, CAPP said. Conventional production is set to fall from 1.39 million to 1.28 million barrels a day over the next 15 years.
Oilsands will still account for almost 4 million of the 104 million barrels of oil the world is projected to use on a daily basis in 2030 — natural gas and coal will contribute similar volumes of energy to global fuel supplies — so the G7 goal of a zero-carbon economy is a long way off.